Wigan 1-1 Fulham

(this looks like it’s going to be my annual ‘mulligan’ game – will fill in more details when I’ve seen more highlights)

When the league fixtures came out a few hearts sank.  The early going looked difficult, with Chelsea, Arsenal, Villa, Everton, Liverpool and Man City to be negotiated in the first ten games.   But then November:  Wigan, Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton, followed by Sunderland and Burnley in December.  So this was the first of the ’springboard’ games; to me the goal was always to get to this point with our heads above water, then push on.

Thanks to a good run of form our heads are certainly above water, but complicating matters somewhat has been the Europa League, a handful of high pressure games spliced amongst the aforementioned tricky start.  That’s what made today’s game potentially messy.  Yes, it’s relatively nice to be playing a notionally more beatable team like Wigan after Liverpool and AS Roma, but after that double-whammy, beating anyone three days later is going to be tricky.

And so it seems to have proved.  Wigan went ahead early, Paul Scharner rising high at the back stick, heading down to Emmerson Boyce, who drove low past Schwarzer.   Fulham’s response came from the in-form Clint Dempsey, who made it 3 in 3 with a penalty after he himself had been chopped down in the area.   If the decision looked marginal, the penalty was decisive, Dempsey driving the ball past Chris Kirkland with Ronaldo-esque technique.   Absent Murphy, Johnson and now Kamara our team seemed bereft of a spot kick taker, but there was nothing wrong with Dempsey’s effort.

Interviews suggest that both goalkeepers had stormers, with Roy Hodgson noting that this was more of a 3-3 game than a 1-1 game, while commending the big man in yellow:  “[with Schwarzer] the shots are the things that people will notice, but where he really helps us is his presence in the six yard box.” Too true.  Roberto Martinez, the Wigan manager, agreed that Schwarzer had been “fabulous”.

Roy had nothing but praise for his team:

“The players dug very deep today to get this result.”

“Wigan are a good team with gifted players.”

and managed to get in a reasonably good spirited dig at recent refereeing decisions against us:

“Today we could play with 11 men, which was also a pleasant change.”

Red cards: evidence

Figure 1:  minutes between red cards for Fulham in league games since 08/09 and in Europa League games against AS Roma

Since the start of 08/09:

Fulham red cards in league games:  2
Fulham league games: 48
Minutes per red card in league games:  2,160

Fulham red cards in games against AS Roma: 3
Fulham games against AS Roma: 2
Minutes per red card in games against AS Roma:  60

Proof of underhandness. We had two in 48 games in the league and three in two against Roma.   What are the odds?

(before you correct my logic, yes, I know.  But still…)

And relax

Been a while since we did some music.

Genius.  I was lucky enough to be there that night.

 

Roma and the ref 2-1 Fulham

Conspiracy theories don’t usually do it for me, but after tonight’s farce….  if Jack Warner can retain a high ranking position in FIFA than nothing in football is impossible; could it be that UEFA, frightened by Roma’s poor start to the campaign and desperate to show off their new Europa League, have issued a far reaching anti-non-famous club mandate?

No, I don’t think so either, but in two games against Roma we have now seen three poor red cards (two of them while we were ahead).  Stephen Kelly was eventually dismissed in the home game after the referee thought he saw Brede Hangeland take down Jon-Arne Riise, and now, with Fulham in control, we see Erik Nevland sent of for… clipping Daniele Di Rossi’s heels?  And just to be safe, Paul Konchesky got a straight red too, his crime being to foul a Roma player who was in the act of prancing.  Said Roma player (his name escapes me) was kicked so hard by our left back that he had to roll over on the ground four or five times, as if he had jumped out of a fast moving train.

If UEFA are so set on using six referees for these occasions, why not open the ballot to good ones?  Sure, you can let the trainees have a go on the goal-line shift – nothing seems to happen there – but if the Europa League is to be taken seriously, why not let someone competent take charge in the middle?

Because if you don’t then things like this happen.  Fulham, our most celebrated game for donkey’s years, deservedly ahead, then cut down because a referee can’t distinguish between a slightly dodgy challenge and an achilles heel raking, or whatever it was he thought he saw Nevland do.  Game over.  It was going to be hard enough with 11 men.  Ten?  Forget it.  Roma would attack, pin us back, goals would come.   This is exactly what happened, Roma’s Riise firing in from distance via deflections from Gera and our own Riise to make it 1-1, a jammy goal but one that had been coming.   Then Roma scored again, a good left footed cross and a good header, and that was that.  We were pinned back and couldn’t keep the ball.  Because we were a man down.   It’s ridiculous.   We can all live with bad decisions, and indeed we profited from a couple of slightly iffy calls at the weekend, but there’s no way these were red cards, no way.  To think otherwise is to be wrong.

We started well.  Dempsey and Kamara worked well together, finding gaps in Roma’s defence and engaging well with Riise, Gera and the impressively attacking Konchesky.  Roma were sitting back, waiting for something to happen, and soon enough it did.  Dempsey cleverly reversed a pass into Kamara’s stride, Kamara nicked it past the defender, tumbled on the way through, and sure enough, penalty.   This somewhat dimishes the conspiracy theory now I think about it, but the penalty was that clear that even the most bent ref would have had to award it.  To do otherwise may have made the plot too obvious (I am still only half joking. I think.  Who knows?)

Kamara sent the ‘keeper the wrong way and Fulham were ahead.  Roma were occasionally impressive but this game was under control.  Nevland replaced the livewire Kamara at half-time (the latter having been injured for much of the first half), and the rest I have ranted about already.

Pah.

Establishing Premier League clubs’ real level

Those of you who don’t like it when I go digging in the numbers may care to leave now…

As you know, I draw “inspiration” from far and wide.  Today we’re going to borrow from ice hockey!

This article had some interesting quotes to draw me in:

However, it is only one month. The more important issue, whether your team has been good or bad, is: is this really my team? Is this the level of play I can expect for 82 games, in addition to the playoffs?

and then:

shot differentials, which contain much more data (there are 11 times more shots than goals in an NHL game), are more precise and therefore better represent what a team will be able to accomplish in the long run. Therefore, to determine if your team has been good or merely lucky, look at the shot differentials.

Aha.  So I worked it all out.  First, acquaint yourselves again with the league table.

My usual flannel about Goal Difference applies, but what we’re proposing to do here takes things to another dimension.  By looking at shots and shots on target, both by each team and against each team, we get to see who’s really doing what.  As the quote says, goals are what it’s all about, but are rare enough that they can distort things and give a false representation of how good a team is, and how well it is playing.   The underlying metrics – if I may be so bold – can also be helpful.

Here goes:

Where to start?  In short, the left most numbers are what each team has done while attacking in home games, away games, and in total, per game, then ranked.  The second lot are what each team has had done to it, in terms of Shots and Shots on target.

So you can see for us that we’re much more menacing at home (63 shots, and 38 on target) than away (39 shots, 18 on target), we have put 102 shots on goal in total and 56 on target, averaging 10 shots and 6 on target per game.   We rank 15th and 16th for these respectively.

Bear with me, I think it’s worth the effort.

The same explanations apply to the shots we’ve allowed in the next set of numbers.

But the key to all this is the per game totals.  We have 10 shots (6 on target) per game and allow 12 shots (5 on target).  This leads us to differentials, which is the number we want:  we’re -2 for shots (we allow 2 more shots than we take) but +1 for shots on target (we get one more shot on target per game than we allow).

Where this gets really interesting is when you compare these number to the rest of the league:

- Chelsea are ominously good this year.  It still beggars belief that people complained when we didn’t get near them.  Yes, we might have shown more fight, but I’m fairly sure this is the best team in the league.  The table, looking at overall differentials, is fairly bunched.  Except Chelsea, who tower above the rest of us in terms of the shots they take and the shots they stop others taking.   That there’s a winning formula.
- Man Utd aren’t too far behind, but while Chelsea have the best attack and the best defence, United hae the 3/4th best attack and the 2nd best defence.  Close, but close enough?
- Were it not for the media I think people would be happy to acknowledge that Liverpool are a pretty good side in a bad run, rather than a bad side in need of reconstruction (their injury list is not inconsiderable; their reserves are not great).  If they don’t panic things should go their way in time.  That doesn’t mean they can recover this season, but next season really should be business as usual.
- Everton’s “indicators” suggest that things are broadly on track for them too, despite results so far.
- City and Tottenham, as last year, are there or thereabouts, but not there or thereabouts enough.   Mark Hughes has clearly tightened City up (look at the shots v shots allowed – both lower than we’d expect), but now they need to push on to the next level.  Indicators and recent performances suggest they’re not there yet.  Same for Spurs.
- Wolves have made a decent fist of things so far.
- Villa play a strongly counterattacking game.  Remember when we played them?  Greening had 90 passes, about three times what he might normally expect.  They clearly invite teams onto them and then kill them on the break, which makes them anomalous in this analysis.
- Portsmouth could be the opposite, attacking teams recklessly and being hit on the  counter.  Or they really have been unlucky – in game after game they seem to have got less than their performances deserve.  Possibly a bit of both.   The problem here is that if we start making exceptions for teams on style of play grounds we have to apply this to everyone, so probably best to say that this may be a factor but shouldn’t cast too much of a shadow over findings.  But it may explain why Villa and Portsmouth diverge from what we’d expect to this extent.
- Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley, Hull and Stoke may be in trouble.    Burnley we figure are overachieving in a Hull last year type way, but Stoke are surprising, being halfway up the league with a fair goal difference.  But they are getting only four shots a game on target, while allowing nine at the other end.  That’s a dangerous game.  I suppose in their favour they are keeping things tight – only Fulham have fewer shots in their games – which allow for points nicking potential, but still.   They look like an accident waiting to happen.
- Fulham… doing quite well, thank you.  Our famed defence is only allowing 5 shots on target a game, a tribute to our midfield shape and defensive outlook.   Against that, we’re only get 6 shots on target ourselves.  Plus ca change, etc, but again, we are keeping things very tight, which is why we rarely seem to get turned over.   Also worth noting the change (not shown here) in our early games and more recent matches – we seem a lot more open lately.

If I had to simplify this I’d divide the league into:

The top sides:  Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal, with Liverpool off the pace but still better than anyone else
Other teams playing well:  Everton, Portsmouth, Fulham, City, Spurs, Wolves (and let’s add Villa as noted above)
Bubbling under:  West Ham, Sunderland, Wigan, Birmingham
In trouble: Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley, Hull, Stoke

As per the ice hockey article, I like how this conforms to standard pre-season expectations.  Those teams in trouble are exactly the five you’d suggest, with Wolves outperforming expectations and Portsmouth not yet doomed by ownership issues.

Kagisho’s lament

Kagisho Dikgacoi on life in England.

Life’s all about opportunities isn’t it?   Sometimes you get them, sometimes you don’t.   Kagisho had a debut at a time when the team’s usual defensive midfielder, Dickson Etuhu, was out injured.   The Scott Parker incident meant Chris Baird has been given the nod, and hardly put a foot wrong.

It will be interesting to see what Roy does when he has a full squad to choose from.  In fact, let’s do a depth chart:

Goalkeeping:   Stockdale overtook Zuberbuhler in pre-season, so this one’s: Schwarzer, Stockdale, Zuberbuhler.
Right back:  Paintsil then Kelly.   Paintsil’s in good form this year again isn’t he?
Centre-back: We thought the lack of depth here was a weakness didn’t we?   The Europa League has done us a favour.  Chris Smalling and the immaculate Baird have shown that they are more than capable backups.  Hangeland and Hughes are good players to have.  Excellent.
Left back: Konchesky (in fine form this year, it should be noted) then Gary Stephen Kelly, who has improved after a shaky start (playing out of position).  Nice to have an auxiliary full-back, if that’s the word.
Wide right: Damien Duff, Zoltan Gera.   Both good players.  Duff is class, Gera seems to have found another 10% in most areas of his game.   If that control-swivel-shot had gone in against Liverpool I’d have gone into the club shop and bought a #11 third kit there and then.
Wide left: Clint Dempsey.  At this point he’s simply a very good player.  I guess Gera/Duff backs up this flank.
Centre-midfield: Danny Murphy, Jon Greening.  Ageing maestro, practically perfect backup.
Centre-midfield:  ? Etuhu will probably regain his place because Roy seems to work that way, but Baird has been splendid in every game he’s played.    Dan from Hammyend.com and I were nattering before the game on Saturday about Baird, and Dan mentioned that crucial word:  Confidence.   Baird’s full of it, and if you watch him he’s not just excelling on the ball, he’s playing like a real leader out there, be it in shepherding Chris Smalling through European games or directing midfield traffic in the Premiership.   Top man.
Forwards: Bobby Zamora is in rare form.   I sit quite close to the pitch this season and from nearby you really get to see how much effort Zamora puts in, and how hard it is to defend against him.   It’s essentially wrestling all game.   A player who, one suspects, is highly regarded in the centre-backs union.    David Elm backs him up; in reality I guess Clint is the spare big man.   If we don’t need a big man then Kamara and Nevland have proved they can play together.
Forwards: Johnson will be back in the team when he’s fit, and rightly so.   But it’s terrific that the great Diomansy Kamara is still with us, and that the underrated (by me) Erik Nevland is prepared to do his honest shifts as and when required.   Nevland, as we have discussed at length, can be invisible, but in open games he always seems to make or score a goal.   The way he and Dempsey combined for the third on Saturday was typical Nevland.

Others of note: Simon Davies, Kagisho Dikgacoi, Bjorne Helge Riise, Finnish legend Wayne Brown.  Davies – when he’s fit – is a quality player and would presumably make Roy consider moving Duff into a withdrawn forward (Beardsley) role.  Riise impressed me a good deal in what I’ve seen of him.  His dead ball delivery looks to be right up there at Simon Davies’ level.  Dikgacoi’s chance will come.  Wayne Brown has benefitted enormously from doing what far too few young British players do.  

It’s all good isn’t it?

Best Fulham video?

I don’t know where this came from but it’s amazing.

Diomansy rules doesn’t he?   This video gives a great sense of the current squad though, plenty of fun and a reminder why the likes of Nevland and Kamara, while not regular starters, are still important.   Nice to see Clint beating Liverpool for the first time again too.   I can’t get enough of that goal.

Watch with the sound up!

New Fulham blog

Here’s one to watch.   “Sound Off” looks very promising.   All the best, Alex!

Graphman!

For no reason whatsoever, a celebration of the main bits of Saturday.   Who knows, in years to come this graph may convey more than mere words.   Or it’ll still look rubbish.   History will be the judge.

Off track: defending Hull City’s Phil Brown

Last night’s Match of the Day was great fun, for obvious reasons.   But as the games wore on, I couldn’t help feel sorry for Hull City.   Here we saw them lose 2-0 at Burnley, and fall victim to some fairly ordinary refereeing.   When you’re struggling these things seem to happen, and Phil Brown is now under a lot of pressure (as if he wasn’t before).

Brown now has a new Chairman, one who will want to understand how the club finds itself in the position of having to stay up to survive as a going concern, but also at the wrong end of the league on merit.     Rival fans throughout the land are enjoying this.  Brown always looks that little bit too pleased with himself, got a bit carried away with Hull’s big start last season, and hasn’t always acquitted himself in the usual manner since then (singing on the pitch when they stayed up, for example…).

I think this is partly what grates.  I see more than a little of Lawrie Sanchez in Brown.   Dave Kidd, writing in the excellent new TOOFIF, doesn’t say a lot about Sanchez but does note that Sanchez is a bright man, and one who likes the sound of his own opinions.   That’s Brown too isn’t it?   Whatever Lawrie Sanchez did wrong at Fulham he didn’t deserve the vitriol that flew his way.

But Phil Brown has achieved great things at Hull.   Here’s where they were when he took over (thanks to statto.com for the tables).

Not good is it?

Here’s where they got to by the end of the season:

And here’s what happened the season after that:

And up they went.

You don’t go from bottom of the Championship to the Premier League in 18 months without a) doing something right (signing Fraizer Campbell – “simply too good for the Championship” – on loan from Man Utd was clearly a masterstroke), but b) being bloody lucky.     Hull had no business being promoted that season.   In the Wembley playoff final they met Bristol City, an organised but very ordinary side, and won with a tremedous Dean Windass strike (following good work from Campbell).   Hull were going to the Premiership.

We all know what happened then.   Fulham went to Hull first up and gifted the home side a win, and from there things snowballed.   They went to Anfield and gave Liverpool a terrible fright, they beat Arsenal at the Emirates, and were quickly up to 30 odd points.   Which was just as well as for the rest of the season they hardly won again (the notable exception coming at Craven Cottage, when Manucho burgled the points in the dying moments).    Hull survived, despite hurtling down the league for a large part of the season.   Had the season gone on two more weeks they would surely have perished, but it didn’t and they didn’t.

This season has seen more of the same, an ordinary side playing ordinary football and losing matches.   Brown’s in trouble.   But should we have expected any different?   They lost Fraizer Campbell after the promotion season and have lacked quality ever since.   They had no business being in the Premiership in the first place; staying up was a miracle, and miracles don’t repeat themselves.    I suppose the argument is that having stayed up, Brown should have built on this fortune, but it’s not easy to make water into wine.

Here are some of his signings:

Geovanni, free from Man City.  Good pickup. Quality player.
Bernard Mendy free.  Mendy used to be a flying right back for Paris St Germain, and has had his moments at Hull.   Another astute signing.
George Boateng was immense against us.  I think he’s been injured rather too much, and he’s not getting any younger, but again, this is exactly the sort of player Hull needed to give some Premier League steel.
Anthony Gardner is a glorified Zat Knight, but he’s big and not bad, and again, a fair signing.
Marlon King was an aberration, a nasty piece of work.
Kamil Zayette formed a fantastic partnership with  Michael Turner for a time.
Daniel Cousin was on Fulham’s radar but ended up at Hull, where he has been somewhat ordinary.
Kevin Kilbane is a good player and could do a job in better sides.
Jimmy Bullard was a calculated risk.    With things going pear shaped Brown saw an opportunity to sign a recent England squad player at a decent price.   He knew about Bullard’s knee, but figured that this was a unique opportunity.  I think he was right.   I didn’t really want us to lose Bullard, I didn’t particularly mind that he went either, but had the knee not given out then this signing could have been a very good one.   Clearly this is not how things have turned out, but it was, on balance, and given the context, a bold signing that could have changed Hull’s season.   They have to live with the gamble gone wrong now, and for that alone Brown may find himself in hot water, but in his position I think other managers would have done the same thing.    Had they been allowed…

The latter is an important point.   A few weeks ago I listened to Steve Claridge and John Motson on Radio 5 Live, and talk turned to Harry Redknapp.   Redknapp, they said, had clearly left Portsmouth in a state, but someone rightly asked where the blame for this lay.   Redknapp kept asking for money.  Someone kept on saying yes.   This being so, where do you apportion blame?   It is not black and white.

Similarly, when Jimmy Bullard failed his medical, could someone have said to Phil Brown “no – this cannot happen”?   I think so.  But like Brown, whoever signed off on the deal was seduced by the prospect of further glory.   Hull have overachieved and got caught up with the idea that somehow all it takes is a bit of money and they can stay where they think they belong.    But it doesn’t work like that.   Yes, you need to spend, and you have to spend well (by and large Brown has, I think), but none of this is any substitute for quality.    That’s why they felt they had to sign Bullard, and why they’re in big trouble now (that and letting Michael Turner leave – how they miss him).

I’ve wandered off point.   Phil Brown transformed Hull City in no time.    Perhaps, like a startup company that later needs to bring in an experienced management team as the company grows, he has outlived his usefulness.    Perhaps he is facing an impossible situation and done a marvellous job staving off relegation.   Perhaps he got lucky with Fraizer Campbell, some mad results at the start of last season, and is now finding his level as Hull undoubtedly find theirs.    Probably all of those.    But I can’t hate him for any of this.  In fact I admire what he’s done, and wish him well.

Fulham 3-1 Liverpool

The trouble with playing the big sides is that the games can be a bit dull.  Typically said big side keeps the ball, Fulham stand off, keep shape, but don’t do much going the other way.  It can make for a painful watching experience, a reminder of everything Fulham are not and may never be.  The worst such game was when Arsenal beat us 3-0 a year ago, and we didn’t get near them all match.

Today felt like it was going to be like that.   Liverpool kept the ball for about 10 minutes from the kickoff, but then Fulham put the cat amongst the pigeons with a goal against the run of play, Damien Duff (how important he is) firing across the area for Bobby Zamora to slot home, right footed.   Liverpool were stunned by this unexpected twist, but soon got going again.  Red shirts surged towards the Hammersmith End, with Benayoun tormenter in chief with some snaking runs through the midfield.  It was a puff out your cheeks and fight for it game now, but by and large our defence did its job.   John Paintsil cleaned out Fernando Torres with about as hard a tackle as you can get away with in the modern game.  Fulham meant business.

But Torres is not spoken of as the world’s best striker for nothing.  As half-time drew near the ball dropped to him on the edge of our area.  A good player might have made something of the situation, Torres belted the ball past Schwarzer on the volley.  It was a breathtaking finish, stunning in its execution, ferocious power and impeccable technique.  Wow.

The concern now was that a 4-1 scoreline loomed, but Torres was frequently seen hobbling, bending over, grimacing.  My mind wandered into schadenfreudous territory.  He’s injured!  Yes!  Is he injured?  Please let him be injured.  I’m not a bad person for thinking that?  Of course I’m not.  We need him off the pitch.

And off the pitch he went, on the hour.  My chronology may be off here, but at this point the game went apocalyptic.  Zamora – who had another of his “best game in a Fulham shirt” days, scampered into the box, was surely hauled down, and was not awarded a penalty.   The ground howled in disbelieving anger.  How was this not a penalty?  How?  Lee Mason, who had been erring Liverpool’s way all match, was now public enemy number one.

He atoned for this by dismissing two Liverpool players.  The first (Degen?) lunged into Clint Dempsey and saw straight red.  The second, Jamie Carragher, occurred after Zamora had again wrestled his way free of his markers and was bearing down on the Liverpool goal.  Carragher may well have been the last man, and it may well have been a foul, but it felt like we were being paid back for the penalty non-decision.

The game was great fun at this point, not least because Erik Nevland had already made it 2-1, backheeling home following a neat knockdown from the impressive Gera.  Later, with the freedom of the park (we were now playing against nine men, including two Liverpool youth teamers), Fulham waltzed through on goal again, Dempsey taking care of business with an assured left-foot finish past a bemused, furious Pepe Reina.  Did I say the game was going to be a bit dull?   Quite the opposite!

3-1 to the Whites (we’re just not a 3-1 side are we?), Liverpool had withdrawn some key players, and were effectively surrendering the points.  This doesn’t happen every day, their season is all but ruined, and our boys seem to keep getting better.  Something is wrong at Anfield, the wheels are coming off as a succession of poor signings fail to add to the Gerrard/Torres core.  For us it’s a time to again sit back and wonder how on earth we got to this point, having been down so long so recently.   Wow.  Get Mr Hodgson a new contract before someone steals him.

A reminder

This was just before we visited Reading.   They had six points on Bolton and eight on us.   Birmingham had six points on us and two on Bolton for that matter.     That day we had a bit of fun.    Hade was driving so Toby and Matt headed over to ours, and stopped off at the Tooting branch of Woolworth’s (now history) for some inflatables.   These inflatables were to appear on countless TV cameras during the run-in, but really it was a bit of “oh well, we’re going down” fun as best I remember.

Hade and I were by the corner flag that day and early on the heavens opened.   We got drenched.   Then the sun came out, we scored, we hit the cross-bar three times, then finally Simon Davies put Erik Nevland through and the latter sealed the game and began a run of form that pretty much ensures that he’ll always be remembered.

We still had to beat City away, Birmingham at home and Portsmouth away, but hey, somehow all that happened and Reading went down on goal difference.

Crazy.

Now look:

No point pretending it couldn’t have been us.   It could so easily have been us.  It probably should have been us.

I’m not sure that being in the Premiership is the be all and end all, but let’s not forget how lucky we are.    I haven’t got a particularly strong point to make here, but, well, you know where I’m coming from, right?

Liverpool tomorrow.   There are many fixtures I get more excited about, but at the moment I’m living for 3pm tomorrow afternoon.

Duff

Back on the old UEFA coaching site.  Watching Roy talk about 3-5-2 and the limitations of three centre-backs, he starts talking about why three centre backs sometimes don’t want to leave the middle of the field.    He notes that these players are good headers of the ball, good tacklers, etc, but they are often reluctant to get out on the flanks where they have to face….

“A Damien Duff, or an Arjen Robben, or a Cristiano Ronaldo”

Looks like he rates our man Duff highly.   And why not?   He looks like a real coup.    Duff’s put more balls into the box than any other Fulham player I imagine, and probably by a fairly wide margin.  And he shoots on target.   Great signing.

New third kit. ‘Round Midnight

It’s in “Midnight Blue” says the club.

And here’s Danny Murphy wearing the new kit at Craven Cottage, at midnight, to prove it.   Captain Marvel.

Did you know that ‘Round Midnight, the jazz standard, appears on over 1,000 albums?   Wikipedia says so, citing allmusic.com.

‘Round Midnight was initially composed by Thelonious Monk.

That’s an amazing picture, and this is one of my favourite album covers:

How funny is that?

Anyway, the new shirt’s on sale now.

Meanwhile: Barcelona put six past Zaragoza

You have to enjoy this team while it’s doing its thing.   Amazing football…

Fulham v Bookmakers, 2009/10

A few numbers to have a peer at.

First thing that jumps out:  when the bookies have not got our games quite right (4/9), all four results have been in our favour.

That’s interesting isn’t it?  I appreciate that bookmakers’ odds are not the be all and end all, but they are a good neutral barometer of what we might generally expect to happen in a game.

Throw in the European results – beating top seeds Basel and almost beating Roma – and things really do look quite good for the whites at the moment.

The other thing I was looking at is the Johnson v Kamara comparison, but I don’t know that there’s much of a story here.  Kamara’s come in and done well, but I don’t know that it means anything other than that he’s a decent player who’s playing like a decent player.  Equally, Johnson’s acquitted himself quite well when fit.    It’s not really an either/or situation because when Johnson’s fit he’ll play, but when this happens I think there’s a good argument for giving Kamara at least half an hour a game, especially away from home where he’s done a lot of his best work over the last couple of seasons.

A major boon for us going forward has been the relatively decent form of our front players, but perhaps more important has been Damien Duff’s fine play and the consistent attacking menace of Dempsey on the other wing.  All of which means that we now seem to have several attacking players on the same page.

Jamie’s report: Man City 2-2 Fulham

Our man in the North was at Eastlands on Sunday:

Man City 2-2 Fulham

A crazy match, as our trips to Eastlands always seem to be. The common factor, of course, is the home side: City’s star-studded ranks play with such abandon – committed to attack despite leaving generous space behind – that it seems Hodgson’s normally conservative outfit can’t help but join in the fun. This was another end-to-end thriller, and great entertainment again.

City had the better of the first half. Adebayor, save for his needless attempts at conning the referee, lead the line impressively, whilst Tevez tormented our full-backs with mesmeric, magnetic dribbles without ever quite producing an end product. Their best chance fell to Nigel De Jong, who found himself with a shooting opportunity after a fortunate deflection but was denied by Schwarzer. Later, Richards seemed unlucky to have a headed effort ruled out for a foul.

At the other end Fulham were creating openings too. Baird and Greening both saw decent shots whistle wide, whilst the chance of the half fell to Diomansy Kamara who was slipped through nicely by Zamora, only to take a heavy touch and see the ball smothered by Given. A bad miss, by anyone’s standards.

Worse was to come. With the second period only a few minutes old, Kamara made one of his typical runs: seeming to go nowhere but suddenly, randomly getting past a couple of players and opening things up. From the left, he fed a lovely pass into Dempsey, whose shot was parried by Given into the path of Zamora – four yards out, with all the time in the world and the goal gaping. He blazed over.

City then struck twice in quick succession – a scrappy goal from a corner (disappointing, and the set-piece consolations are mounting up this season) followed by a nicely worked effort from Petrov after exchanging passes with Gareth Barry (perhaps Greening went to ground too easily here). Zamora, as the saying goes, must have wanted the ground to swallow him up.

But to Bobby’s credit, he kept going – continuing what was in fact his third impressive performance of the week, shocking miss aside. Almost immediately after Petrov’s strike, it was Zamora’s chest-down from Kelly’s ball in which allowed Damien Duff to screw a shot past Given and put us back in the game, at 2-1.

Amazingly, within minutes we were level. Greening sent a free-kick into the box where Demspey bundled it in like only Dempsey can – heading slowly, precisely, agonizingly into the corner of the net under seemingly impossible pressure from his marker. Bedlam and incredulity in the away end – reminiscent of the great escape’s greatest game, two seasons ago. “We’ve come from two down, we’ve come from two do-o-own, it must be City, we’ve come from two down…”
All this and there were still 25 minutes remaining. From this point it could have gone either way: our best chance came when Zamora turned powerfully past Toure before shooting wide, whilst City had a succession of corners in the closing minutes as we continued our habit of sitting too deep with a result in sight.

No matter, on this occasion: finally, the whistle blew and it was over. Somehow, despite the unlikely comeback, it felt disappointing. What if our strikers had put their early chances away? Still – a point not to be sniffed at, and after the trip to West Ham, a second very entertaining away game in a row. Compared to last year’s travels, this is vintage stuff. Next stop: Rome!

Fulham 1-1 Roma

Devastating finale, of course, but have you ever seen such a good football match?

Fulham fired out of the traps like men possessed.  In 3 minutes Greening struck hard and low, the shot parried well.  Our players passed quickly and effectivelyy, and Roma didn’t see the ball until 6 minutes were on the clock.    The combinations, particularly down the right flank, were sensational.  Bjorn Helge Riise shuttled around his brother with wonderful regularity, Bobby Zamora led the line superbly, and Roma were on the back foot.

We won a series of corners, most delivered by Riise with great power and accuracy.  Nobody got on the end of them, but momentum was building.  Another corner, Mart says to me “Hangeland hasn’t scored for a year”, at which Hangeland leaps high and scores.   Terrific delivery again.  Riise deserves a lot of the credit for the goal.

Roma come to life.  Daniele Di Rossi bosses the midfield, showing astonishing vision in sweeping the ball around the field.  The slippery Jeremy Menez is floating around, a man without a position, and as yet on the periphery, but his time will come.  A Roma corner, Jon Arne Riise volleys, power, incredible strike, incredible save.  How did he get that on target?  How did Schwarzer keep it out.

The second half gets even better.  Zamora and Kamara combine expertly on the break and are proving a real handful.  But Fulham can’t keep possession.  Roma bring on Vucinic, Perrotta, Pizarro.  All look phenomenal, Vucinic blasts a fearsome drive from distance that catches Schwarzer by surprise, but our man keeps it out again.  Pizarro is playing as a deep lying playmaker, and now Menez is getting more and more involved.  The Frenchman plays like Clint Dempsey with lightning pace, and soon he’s charging in at our defenders at frightening angles.   They stand firm, but you can’t block these players out, they have too many ways to attack.   Their version of Riise, now ascendant over ours, charges into the box and is brought down by Stephen Kelly.  Kelly eventually sees red.  Menez hits the penalty low to Schwarzer’s right, Schwarzer keeps it out.   Amazing.

Zamora has been withdrawn.  This is a puzzler in some respects:  while Nevland is devastating on the counter, won’t we miss Zamora’s hold up play?  Sure enough, we can’t keep the ball.  Punt after punt after punt lands in the Roma half and is recycled into another attack.  The lads are defending like demons out there, but surely they can’t hold out.  Gera, Baird, Hughes, Hangeland, Duff, all are immense defensively, all doing their bit.

But as time runs out Roma earn another corner and the ball falls to Andreolli, whose shot smashes in dramatically off the bar from close range.  Emphatic, fantastic, devastating.   Final whistle follows seconds later.

Roma deserved that, I haven’t seen a team play such appealing football for a long time, but how harsh on the Fulham players?   Whew.   What a night.   Nobody will forget this one.

If I were a rich man…

Check this out:  a ball from each World Cup.   There’s a mini version too.

Iconic?  Yes, but that’s marketing speak isn’t it?  They’re just flat out tremendous.

Numberwang

It’s been a while since I bored you with numbers, so:

These are the numbers for the season to-date.   What stands out?

Involvement: This is passes per minute on the pitch.  It doesn’t mean anything but it’s a fair proxy for how much someone’s doing while they’re out there.

I confess that this whole exercise came about following the news that we’ll be without Danny Murphy for 3 months.   This presumably means a promotion for Jonathan Greening, something that will frighten the masses but which I don’t think will be an issue.   Greening has been as involved as anyone, more than anyone in fact (skewed by that 90 pass game against Villa), and has passed more accurately than anyone, too.

Again, this is not proof of anything, and we know that many of these passes have been of the safe, sideways variety.   This said, I maintain that as long as someone in the side can make things happen then having a midfield pairing that is very careful with the ball is not necessarily a bad thing.   So if Greening’s not going to unlock tight defences, at least he can be relied upon to put in a decent shift.   This isn’t the numbers talking now, incidentally, but my eyes – I think he’s done okay since he signed for us.

Creating chances: so yes, we need someone to make things happen.  Top chance creators (passes that lead to shots, I think) are Bobby Zamora, Zoltan Gera and Damien Duff.   This figures:  Zamora’s the most advanced player and does tend to make opportunities for others.    Gera has had a good season so far, and Duff has a unique (in this squad) ability to put balls into the box.  Check his Chalkboard after any game and you’ll see Duff pinging balls into dangerous areas.   Few other Fulham players do this.   He’s a real asset.

Shooting: on Monday, either in my head or out loud (I can’t recall which), I mentioned that Duff seems to have a happy knack of shooting hard and on target.   This is noted by the number men:  Duff has hit the target with six of his eight shots.   This is another feather in his cap, and at this point he looks like he could be a terrific attacking player who really does bring something different to the team.   The much maligned Zamora has hit the target with over half of his shots, and has scored twice already (that’s eight goal a season pace!).    The red flag in all this is our friend Dempsey, who’s shot twice as often as the next highest player (26, to Zamora’s 13), but hit the target only five times.    Part of this is the type of shot he’s taking, of course.

Last year I studied shots on target and noted that everyone’s had declined on previous career levels.  I shared this information with Ian Graham at The Times, who observed some differences in the numbers but broadly agreed with the pattern.   He identified Danny Murphy as someone whose shooting accuracy had particularly suffered in 08/09, I noted Murphy’s deeper role, he checked back and found that, yes, Danny Murphy in 08/09 was shooting from an average of five yards per shot deeper than Murphy in 07/08.     Numbers, numbers, numbers, but the point is clear:  shoot from further away and you’re less likely to shoot on target.   Which brings us back to Clint.

The goals of Clint Dempsey:

Villa away:  left footed one on one with keeper
Spurs home:  thumping header inside box
Wigan away:  slots home left footed from close in
Reading home:  bundled in from close range
Wigan home:  stabbed in from 15 yards
Spurs away:  bundled in from close range
Portsmouth home:  rammed home from close in
Boro home:  slots home when put clean through
Chelsea home:  (1) flips home from close in;  (2) headers in from corner
Blackburn home:  one on one with keeper, scores
City away:  (1) slots home after Zamora robbed; (2) nice finish after Zamora’s good work

You see the point don’t you?   Yes, he did hit a screamer in the Europa League this season, but generally speaking Clint scores a certain type of goal, and this year he hasn’t been getting into the positions to do this.    It’s early days and he’s been excitingly aggressive when we’re going forward, but perhaps it’s time to forget ideas of bursting the net and concentrate on those wonderfully timed runs that we know he’s so good at.  It’s a fine line, as often Dempsey looks like the only player on the pitch who might make something from nothing, but with Duff playing so well and Zamora giving a ’so-far-so-good’ account of himself there is room for Clint to… pick his spots.    Maybe away from home we need these shots, but at home, with the full-backs and Duff sticking the ball into the area with fair regularity, we need him to get into the box and start scoring some ugly goals.