Fulham 3-0 Charlton

That’s the way to do it.

For Scott – captain fantastic – Parker, a man in motion with a pair of metaphorical wings that he doesn’t need as others in the team can manage the aerial stuff.

Fulham dominated the first half to the extent that the second was under control, if frightening.  Symons’ continuing reliance on an attacking three of Ruiz McCormack and Rodallega meant that Charlton were always nervous, and with Parker and Christensen patrolling and controlling behind Fulham were able to dominate the ball and territory.

The goals were terrific: Parker’s early strike coming after he won the ball, surged into the area and converted a cross that was behind him in off the bar.  Rodallega’s first was a study in anticipation, calmness and technique (from him and McCormack) and the third was worthy of far more celebrated names.

The whole thing clicked perfectly.  It’s a fine reflection on the manager that Fulham continue to thrive and surge up the table.  Full reflection later.

Why Kit Symons isn’t necessarily the man to lead Fulham forward

PAY-Brian-and-Shirley-Burnie
Brian Burnie with his then wife.

There was a programme on TV recently in which comedian Jon Richardson looked to get to the bottom of some heavy life issues. One of the three programmes was about money and our attitudes towards having or not having it. In this programme he met a man named Brian Burnie who had amassed a fortune, then essentially gave it away to start his own charity. His wife wasn’t very happy about this and didn’t appear. But his daughter did. Richardson asked her how she felt, the angle being that she would have been in line to inherit this vast fortune, but now was not.

The daughter, a teacher, was fine. She said that at this point in her own life she feels quite content. She is made happy by life’s little things. An example: when you are cycling in the rain and get wet socks. (If you have cycled at all you know what she’s getting at: wet socks can be horrible.) The feeling you get when you get indoors into the warm and take off the wet socks is briefly a magnificent one. In itself the feeling of changing socks isn’t much, but actually, in this context, it’s a good example of a small victory.

I think of Felix Magath’s time at Fulham as a pair of increasingly wet socks. We’ve taken them off and feel better.

The trick here is whether the socks we’re now wearing are what we need.

Here’s why. If you take the old rule of thumb for what Fulham ought to achieve we were clearly not there under Magath. This rule of thumb? That in home games we can expect to beat all but the very best teams in the division, and in away games we will lose to the very best opponents and draw with the rest. This is clearly not *right* in that these things are never so predictable, but if we consider the top six teams the “top teams” that would give us 17 home wins, 6 home draws, 6 away draws and 17 away defeats. Again, it’s not supposed to be a prediction but it works for us here.

FMKS

So by this reckoning we dropped 8 points under Magath and are exactly break even under Symons. We weren’t doing what we should have done then; we are now.

An added wrinkle here is a new-fangled statistic called TSR, or total shots ratio. I’m not going to make any claims for this above and beyond the following from the man who invented it:

http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2012/12/02/introducing-tsr2-4/

http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/predicting-future-performance-revisited/

http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2013/10/30/the-relationship-between-tsr-and-points-over-9-games/

This isn’t me going all weird with stats, it’s someone who has looked at something and established various facts.  You can dismiss these things or you can buy into them – your choice – but for those of us who are even less certain than we were in the past, objectivity can be helpful.

TSR, is short for total shots ratio and in short is the proportion of shots in a game that a team takes. James has tested various things and found it to be the best predictor of future performance he’s come across.

So? Well here’s the thing: Fulham’s TSR under Magath and under Symons hasn’t changed at all. Fulham under Magath were massively under-performing their TSR, which might be bad luck but was probably a function of, well, everything. But the underlying indicators told us that this team wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked. We knew that – those of us who weren’t screeching at the internet about wanting our football team back anyway – but it’s still instructive. Magath would argue that this is evidence that the team would have improved in time, and the sensible conclusion is that he’s probably right, or he would be if the aforementioned “everything” wasn’t in the way. (is seven games too small a sample? Yes, perhaps, but James shows here that TSR works quite well in limited datasets too.)

Symons’ team has done what it should. Fulham have taken off their wet socks and are enjoying a welcome cup of tea on the sofa.

So has Symons taken Fulham forward? Yes, in the sense that it was in a very bad place when he arrived. Honestly, I’d probably argue that almost any manager could have achieved the same, but Symons had the advantage (of his own making) of knowing the squad and particularly its young players, so he was able to stabilise the ship almost instantly. That’s to his immense credit. We also have to acknowledge that he’s working with another man’s squad. Magath did a very thorough job of refurbishing the losing squad from last season but got carried away to the point where we didn’t have a lot left. Enough, sure, but not a great deal. This derailed our early season form (to a degree: TSR still thinks we were an alright team getting bad results) and Symons has had to work with the same issue. Again: it looks to all the world as if he’s got Fulham back to exactly where they should be. Well done him.

This is different to taking the club on a level, though, and here lies the problem for Khan’s Headhunters. They have two choices really:

a) the easy way out is to say “give the job to Kit Symons, a Fulham man who the fans like.”
b) the hard choice is to say “Kit’s been brilliant but we think we’ve found someone who can take Fulham to another level.”

I think really they have to take a combination of the two. They identify candidates who would work under scenario B but recommend that Symons keeps his job until at least the end of the season. If Fulham continue to improve steadily Symons is given the job on a permanent basis. If Fulham drop below the current baseline then you thank Kit and move to plan B, which has been teed up for this very purpose.

Kit Symons has done everything right. He has brought a stability to selection; the team is playing in a sensible fashion; the team is selecting its best players; the team is playing quite well. The job of the committee is to look at these achievements and try to value them and establish what they mean in a slightly longer term context.  I don’t think it’s as easy as it sounds.

Levelling the playing field

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/how-to-control-the-amount-of-random-variation-in-your-sport

We’ve talked about this in the past several times. The answer is “confrontations”. The more confrontations you have, the more talent will overcome the noise from random variation. A sport like basketball has plenty of confrontations. This allows the talent to shine through more, and so, keeps random variation at bay. That is, don’t expect many upsets. If however the NBA was limited to a 12-minute game, random variation would fly. The predictability would be severely reduced. And if you limit the season to a 32-game season as well, that would further allow random variation to take center stage.

The NBA is considering a 44-minute game. I love that they took the initiative. I don’t think they’ll get anything worth reporting on, especially based on one game.

It’ll never happen, and it probably never should happen, but if Premier League games were reduced to an hour, or even 45 minutes, the big teams wouldn’t dominate quite as much, you’d get more teams competing and it would be more interesting overall.

The lights exploded (now with highlights)

Sport is in many ways a waste of time and brain space. But when it’s nice, it’s really nice.

As you’ll know if you’ve read this for any time I’m a big fan of Juliana Hatfield. In a generally brilliant but occasionally erratic musical career Hatfield is capable of moments that make me feel feint. Bring a tear to my eye.

Take this for instance. It’s an album track from the Blake Babies’ 1990 album “Sunburn” and is a relatively ordinary Boston indie pop song. But at the end John Strohm’s guitar revs up a bit and Hatfield adds some harmonies that send me to heaven.

It’s more subtly demonstrated here. This is the Lemonheads’ “Drug Buddy”, one of the great songs from a great spell for Evan Dando’s band. Hatfield offered exceptional harmonies here, too, but much deeper into the background. She pops up on 4-5 Lemonheads songs like this and adds a great deal each time despite being barely noticeable.

For the full effect see 1990’s “Only Everything” album, whose title was taken from Dinosaur Jr’s phenomenal “Raisans”* In an otherwise loud and fuzzy album, the tender “Live on Tomorrow” contains one of the best 90 seconds of music I’m aware of.

That’s what it’s all about in my world. If you have it in you to make beautiful music, to bring about a gentle feeling of ecstasy in the middle of another dull London day, if you can do that, and if you’re given the chance to do that, then the world is a much better place than it would have been had you not been given this chance.

Your best is not just better than others’ best, it is beautifully and spectacularly better. Your day-to-day performance might not always be so good. But when you’re on, by god you’re on.

I make no apologies for this post. I didn’t see last night’s game but I’m looking forward to the highlights.


*The lights exploded
She stood burning in front of me
She ripped my heart out beating
My eyes wouldn’t open, cemented to her face
Have I begun a feeble chase?

I’ll be down, I’ll be around
I’ll be hanging where eventually you’ll have to be
I’ll just stare and hope you’ll care
It’s only everything standing in front of me

I know what you did to me
I know what you did was wrong
You’re allowed to torture me
Wait a moment until I’m gone
I know you’re the ticket, you gotta be
‘Cause I let you alone for long
Got to be so completely
Got to be so I can’t hang on

(you’re killing me)

I’ll be down, I’ll be around
I’ll be hanging where eventually you’ll have to be
I’ll just stare and hope you’ll care
It’s only everything standing in front of me

I’ll be down, I’ll be around
I’ll be hanging where eventually you’ll have to be
Then that man is standing there
Now you’ll have to decide the fate of my sanity

The hunt for red October (no, that doesn’t work, does it?)

“A committee is like an animal with four back legs” – George Smiley, quoting Spymaster Karla, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy by John Le Carre

Nevertheless, a 5 man “find the next Fulham manager” committee is what we have. Shahid Khan has noticed that post Hodgson we’ve made a series of poor decisions and now intends to do things differently. Well done him.

There’s a fan on board, one David Daly, but not just any fan. Daly is a senior director at Nike.

Huw Jennings is included, which is good and acknowledgement of what’s most important for this club for the next few seasons.

Brian McBride has always seemed like a nice man. I’m not clear what Brian will be bringing to the table, which sounds a lot harsher than it’s meant to. Another perspective probably, which is fine. McBride’s a bright man and probably a sensible addition here.

Danny Murphy is very bright and clearly ‘gets’ Fulham. My reading of him is that he’s quite conservative in his footballing beliefs and would be the kind to advocate a British manager where possible, but I have nothing to base this on. He would be well connected within the game and could ‘sound out’ possible candidates on the grapevine.

Niall Quinn seems like a footballing good egg and has been in the dressing room and the boardroom, and, let’s face it, seen some good examples of how these things can go wrong while at Sunderland.

Will these five wise men come up with an answer to Fulham’s woes? Maybe, maybe not, but Khan earns points for at least going about all this in a transparant and outwardly sensible fashion. The alternative could have left him open to various unwanted accusations, so choosing a team of respected (which they all are, more or less) experts to lead the process makes every sense.

Unless I’m misreading the situation it’s not lovely for the CEO, but I think we were sort of getting that.

Me, I hope Kit Symons gets a bit longer. Amid all the excitement is the simple fact that under him we’ve shown capabilities of winning football matches, and if we haven’t quite resembled Brazil 1970 yet, then perhaps it’s not that easy to turn around a team that’s been mistreated so. My preference would be for Kit to keep the job until such a point as he proves he isn’t up to it, at which point the league of extraordinary gentlemen step in with their dossier of possibilities and we recruit based on that.

But we’ll see, eh?

Birmingham away

The season starts here. After the chaos of the last… well it seems like forever, doesn’t it, we can start to think about games on their merits. Birmingham away becomes Birmingham away, not another episode in Mike Gregg’s Felix Bingo, not another excruciating exercise in demonstrating how far we’ve fallen. No, it feels like games are about to get winnable.

Birmingham’s a nice fixture in this sense. They opened up with a defeat at Middlesbrough, beat Brighton 1-0 at home, drew 2-2 with Ipswich, then at Brentford (1-1), before being thumped 3-0 by Sunderland in the League Cup and 4-0 at Wigan in the league.

In September they’ve drawn with Leeds, lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday (Blues manager and friend of Fulham, Lee Clark: “We were the dominant team in the first half and then the second half things changed too dramatically for us.”) and drawn away at Norwich, surrendering a 2-0 lead in the process (Clark: “there so many positives to take from this – we look a good team when we do things right. Today a mad five minutes cost us a win – but not many teams will come here and getting any sort of positive result.”)

It kinds of sounds familiar: a biggish team that somehow less than itself at the moment and trying to draw optimism from a tricky situation. (It should be a good game, and if you are travelling to the match and need overnight accommodation in Birmingham, ibis hotels has a few affordable options.)

I’m expecting a tight encounter as Fulham move to solidify. Hopefully Kit Symons gets a few weeks to show what he can do.

Two sides to every story

From Felix Magath’s facebook page:

Dear Facebook friends and fans, incorrect messages deal with my work. For you the clarification. I put this on your judgment and objectivity. This “cheese story” of the player’s Hangeland is cheese like nonsense. I would never prescribe a physician but, what he has to do. I told only the player with an inflammation in the knee, in addition with the old recipe Quark to To try it. Unfortunately, misrepresentation of hillside lands of media in its distorted portrayal is applied. It is however different. Compliment the work of the German press agency, work carefully and ask directly, before they put something in the public domain.

Often, footballers, reached no more attention with their services via verbal appearance to give a public. I have never experienced such behavior by world-class people such as Michael Ballack and Raul. Regarding alleged hard in the Club, I would like the Assistant Coach of Nottingham Forest, Steve Wigley, quote, worked with me in Fulham and publicly expressed a few days ago: “I like Felix, he was Very good to me during this time.”

I would like to be judged objectively in the profession after my work. Otherwise you don’t see it safely in your everyday also. Against criticism, I have absolutely nothing to argue against unprofessional controversy and Backbiting, mixed with stories of alleged “insiders” I keep myself. However, Me too will proceed.

If your questions for me, just to the attached email address, I will answer then this soon on my website. Thank you for your attention and support.

Greetings and See you.
Your Felix Magath

And the stories begin: Magath was every bit as bad as former players suggested

So no, Brede Hangeland wasn’t just bitter.  Read this.  I’ll post it all actually, as it’s important.  Good work, Daniel Taylor.

You might be aware of that scene from I’m Alan Partridge and the little piece of comedy gold when he is informed he isn’t getting another series of his chat show and, one by one, all the ideas he pitches as alternatives – potential classics such as “Monkey Tennis” or “Arm Wrestling with Chas and Dave” – are rejected until he finally snaps, jabs a fork into a block of Stilton and thrusts it into the face of Tony Hayers, the BBC’s head of commissioning.

That little sketch – “D’ya want some cheese?” – comes to mind now Felix Magath has left Fulham and one of the stories that suggests he, too, had some strange ideas of his own before everything unravelled. Again, it involves a large mound of cheese and, much like Alan, it is difficult to know where it leaves him professionally.

It goes back to last season when Brede Hangeland, then the Fulham captain, was diagnosed with a slight thigh injury and the club’s doctor, Stephen Lewis, with more than a decade of working in elite sport, put together a recovery programme to try to get him fit for the weekend. Except Magath thought he knew better. There was another way to treat the problem, he said. So he sent the kit-man to the Tesco in New Malden, a short drive along the A3 from Fulham’s training ground, to buy a large block of cheese.

Hangeland was then told to perch on the end of a massage table and spend the afternoon in that position with a slab of cheese carefully positioned on the sore spot. The cheese, according to Magath, would have soothing effects. Hangeland was a sceptical patient and, funnily enough, Lewis decided a few months later he would rather stick to more orthodox practices and left to join Brighton and Hove Albion. Hangeland could not wait to get away either and has been a frequent critic of Magath ever since. Others, I suspect, will start to be more forthcoming now he is gone because it is clear, speaking to some of the people who have now left Fulham, that his regime was even more bewildering and unpleasant than previously thought.

It is certainly difficult sometimes to remember that the man Fulham sacked on Thursday, bottom of the Championship and dropping like a stone in a well, had won two Bundesliga titles with Bayern Munich and another with Wolfsburg in the previous decade.

The Strange Case of the (Craven) Cottage Cheese is one thing but the stories about Magath are multiple and it would not be any surprise here if Fulham, despite losing their first game with Kit Symons as caretaker manager, begin climbing the league once a bit of common sense returns to the club and now they have started to bring back some of the ostracised players.

The list of outcasts featured Bryan Ruiz, who you may recall featured in many people’s World Cup XIs because of his performances for Costa Rica, and previously included the club’s £11m record signing, Kostas Mitroglou, now on loan at Olympiakos, and Fernando Amorebieta, formerly of Athletic Bilbao. Every day they would be left to mundane exercises on the next pitch to where the first-team squad were going through their sprints. Maarten Stekelenburg used to be with them, too, until he moved to Monaco on loan, and the Magath way was very much to close them off as if they did not exist. Another player was seen talking to Stekelenburg and one of Magath’s coaches ran over to tell him it was not permitted.

Perhaps none of this would have mattered too much had Magath shown he was a brilliant tactician or motivator. Yet this was the man who played Dan Burn, a 6ft 6in centre-half, at right-back in the 4-1 defeat against Stoke City last season that tagged their toes for the relegation morgue. Burn found out on the day of the match and the poor bloke put in a performance that can be accurately measured by the Stoke Sentinel’s post-match interview with Oussama Assaidi. “I felt very sorry for their defender,” the winger said. “He was a nice guy. He asked me to change sides, he didn’t want to play against me any more.” After that game, Magath turned on Burn in the dressing room. When Burn pointed out he had never played that position in his life he, too, was sent into a form of isolation (though, unlike others, he was eventually brought back).

As for Magath’s training methods, the stories are alarming. After one defeat, the German cancelled a day off and brought in everyone to play a full 90-minute match. At other times there have reputedly been three sessions in one day, some purely devoted to running the players until they were close to dropping. It was punishing and primitive and, slowly but surely, the Fulham players came to realise why Magath was known behind his back as “Saddam” at one of his former clubs.

Fulham can hardly say they were unaware of what he was like when his other nickname from Germany was Quälix, a mix of Felix and the verbquälen (to torture). Magath does have a record of achievement behind him but it is an outmoded style and now Fulham probably have a better idea now why Lewis Holtby, on loan from Tottenham, immediately asked to return to White Hart Lane when he found out that Magath, formerly his coach at Schalke, was taking over. In Germany, the joke is that Magath stopped winning matches because the opposition always included some of his former players – who disliked him so much they would give everything to beat him.

Magath had not been in work for 18 months when Fulham’s owner, Shahid Khan, offered him a way back in February and the only conclusion to draw is that his old-school style of boot camp management just does not work in modern-day football. Players don’t want to run until they fall or operate in an environment where they hardly dare utter a word. When they have been made to run through woods for 45 minutes, they don’t want to find the manager has emptied their water bottles for reasons only he knows.

One story has emerged of Magath calling players into his office and then just staring at them for two or three minutes without saying a word. Another comes from this season when two of Fulham’s first-year pros turned up late for training and Magath fined them so heavily it led to a meeting of the club’s senior players to decide how to take him on.

Eventually, the captain, Scott Parker, went to see him and tried to argue that the amount of money involved was not really fair for two teenagers on relatively low salaries. Parker explained there was a legitimate reason why they had been late and did his polite best to make it clear the punishment was disproportionate to the crime. Magath refused to budge. “They need to be taught a lesson,” he said. Parker – a class act – ended up paying the fines.

The theory here is that Magath brought through so many of Fulham’s academy-produced players because it better suited his control-freakishness, on the basis they were less likely to argue and more likely to fall in line, like Daleks. There is a difference, though, between being a manager who wants power and rule and one who is unreasonable and dictatorial to the point that it alienates everyone. Magath, to put it bluntly, was an unpleasant man and the trail of ill feeling he has left behind him brings to mind what Jefferson Farfán of Schalke once said about his former manager. “All the managers at Schalke in the last few years gave something to the club,” Farfán said. “The only coach who didn’t leave anything positive behind was Magath. All he left behind were fines.”

For Fulham, it could take some while to repair the damage. Yet Symons, I’m reliably informed, is one of football’s good guys and already working to make Craven Cottage a happy place again behind the scenes. The chalk to Magath’s cheese.