Craven Cottage Newsround

writings on Fulham Football Club

Results of CCN Wisdom of Crowd predict-o-tron thing

with 4 comments

Thanks to everyone who ran the predictor. I’ve included the 19 Fulham fans who gave me points and positions in their predictions. This gave me:

Team Data Total
Birmingham Average of Position 17.47368
  Average of Points 29.47368
  Lowest Finish 19
  Highest Finish 15
  Max of Points 37
  Min of Points 24
Bolton Average of Position 16.15789
  Average of Points 31.36842
  Lowest Finish 18
  Highest Finish 14
  Max of Points 39
  Min of Points 28
Derby Average of Position 20
  Average of Points 12.36842
  Lowest Finish 20
  Highest Finish 20
  Max of Points 15
  Min of Points 10
Fulham Average of Position 13.89474
  Average of Points 35.78947
  Lowest Finish 17
  Highest Finish 12
  Max of Points 48
  Min of Points 29
Middlesbrough Average of Position 12.73684
  Average of Points 39.68421
  Lowest Finish 16
  Highest Finish 12
  Max of Points 50
  Min of Points 33
Newcastle Average of Position 14.10526
  Average of Points 36.52632
  Lowest Finish 18
  Highest Finish 12
  Max of Points 43
  Min of Points 31
Reading Average of Position 17.78947
  Average of Points 30.36842
  Lowest Finish 19
  Highest Finish 13
  Max of Points 46
  Min of Points 26
Sunderland Average of Position 15.10526
  Average of Points 34
  Lowest Finish 17
  Highest Finish 12
  Max of Points 39
  Min of Points 30
Wigan Average of Position 16.73684
  Average of Points 31.57895
  Lowest Finish 19
  Highest Finish 14
  Max of Points 37
  Min of Points 26

And here are the average points per team:

Middlesbrough 40
Newcastle 37
Fulham 36
Sunderland 34
Wigan 32
Bolton 31
Reading 30
Birmingham 29
Derby 12

Biased? Of course we are. But like I said the other day, clearly there is hope.

Written by weltmeisterclaude

February 18, 2008 at 2:21 pm

Posted in General

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4 Responses to 'Results of CCN Wisdom of Crowd predict-o-tron thing'

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  1. I love how our lowest position is 17.

    Adam S.

    18 Feb 08 at 2:59 pm

  2. Thanks for doing this - great stuff.

    jgoldman007

    18 Feb 08 at 4:14 pm

  3. This helps to drive home the point that the bottom 8 or 9 teams are going to be sweating it out until the very end of the season.

    Its going to be an exciting finish.

    decoy

    18 Feb 08 at 7:40 pm

  4. An update on my earlier point about how people overwhelming underestimate the capacity for the bottom teams to pick up points. We still have seven games remaining and here are the tallies of their current points vs. their predicted finish:

    12 Middlesbrough (34 - 40)
    13 Newcastle (32 - 37)
    14 Wigan (31 - 32)
    15 Reading (31 - 30)
    16 Sunderland (30 - 34)
    17 Birmingham (27 - 29)
    18 Bolton (26 - 31)
    19 Fulham (23 - 36)
    20 Derby (10 - 12)

    Or, to put it another way: the number of points necessary for each team to reach their predicted finish:

    12 Middlesbrough 6
    13 Newcastle 5
    14 Wigan 1
    15 Reading -1
    16 Sunderland 4
    17 Birmingham 2
    18 Bolton 5
    19 Fulham 13
    20 Derby 2

    This shows that a) things are not looking good for the Cottagers and b) almost every one of these teams (with Fulham being the notable exception) should be expected to beat the average prediction, some by a substantial amount.

    Charles

    23 Mar 08 at 6:04 pm

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