One of my little football rules of thumb is that often goal difference is a better identifier of quality than points. People always protest when I say this, but I reckon that, by and large, it’s not far off. Here’s the league table for our league and for the league we might be in next year:
Take the Championship. For a long time I’ve been convinced that West Brom were the best side in the division, while Bristol City appear to have reached the summit with smoke and mirrors. City were, for a good while, top with a goal difference that suggested they were overachieving, while West Brom were in a lower position with that massive goal difference. It suggested a switch at some point, which has happened.
What else does this tell us? Well that we’re probably not in the relegation places by accident, for starters. I have said before that Reading are a bad side, lucky to be where they are, and goal difference would seem to bear this out. Birmingham may, if anything, be a bit better than they look. At the other end goal difference suggests that United are a class apart, while the next three teams are about level in quality. I’d go along with that.
Anyway, if I were to put my money where my mouth is based on this, it would seem that Reading could end up in a bit of a pickle, but that Birmingham might surprise one or two people with a late surge. The problem is that 38 games really isn’t long enough for things to even themselves out, so Reading may yet hang on (and if so would certainly be a good bet to go down next year) and Birmingham may sink without trace, but hey, who knows? Something to ponder though, eh?
