After a long break, we’re back with the serious business tomorrow. Bolton Wanderers visit, a team that, under current circumstances, we would hope to beat. Andy Johnson should start, Bolton aren’t what they were, and we’ve just beaten Arsenal. So fair grounds for optimism, I think.
But what are Bolton these days? Hard to know:
These are their three games this year: a 3-1 walloping of a startled Stoke; a 0-0 draw with West Brom, and a 1-0 loss at Newcastle. Probably about par for the course so far. What’s interesting is their varying shapes this year, as shown above in the splendid Telegraph density maps.
Most of Bolton’s play seems to flow through the estimable Kevin Davies (a player Roy knows well, of course).
Davies does a number of things well. He picks up (and gives away) a lot of fouls, which our players will have to watch. But there’s more than that. In all three games he had a significant number of passes, but it looks like he played in three different roles. Against Newcastle he was much further forward than any other Bolton player. Against WBA he played off another striker (Riga, who came on after 14 minutes for Joey O’Brien). Against Stoke it looks like he was dropping quite deep.
This is backed up by his ‘interactions’.
v Newcastle
Made 20 passes, most common: 6 to Joey O’Brien, 6 from O’Brien
v West Brom
18 passes, 9 from JLloyd Samuel, 5 from Ricardo Gardner, 6 to Kevin Nolan, 5 from Nolan
v Stoke
27 passes, 8 from Gretar Stinesson, 6 from Kevin Nolan, 4 from Muamba
Varied, no? I think this sums up his importance to the team: whatever’s happening out there he’s going to be available to his teammates and working very hard. A real leader.
The other thing to note is that our midfield could be in for a tricky time. Fabrice Muamba has already been in for 19 tackles this year. Fulham’s top players? Seol and Murphy with 8 each (in a game less, of course). Incidentally, our friend Clint Dempsey has 3 tackles (all won) in… how long on the pitch? Not long.
Anyway, it seems to me that Bolton will be a handful. We should beat them, and it’ll be really interesting to see how our philosophy of playing our own passing game works against a team like Bolton, who will surely make life difficult for our smaller players. It’s a game that could suit Dickson Etuhu, and Clint Dempsey perhaps. I mention Etuhu because if Bolton stick everything through Kevin Davies, who – as we see above – doesn’t score too many goals – then clearly their interested in the second ball, or whatever Davies can scrounge up. If Davies is the lone forward then this will mean Bolton are relying on midfielders attacking from deep… can Murphy and Bullard track Kevin Nolan? Can Kevin Nolan stop Murphy and Bullard, for that matter?
Also important is what I was on about the other day: if we can play a long way away from our own goal then the Davies induced chaos won’t be nearly so dangerous. If we find ourselves camped on (or inside, as happened against Leicester) our own 18 yard line then we could be in bother.
Please excuse all this theorising, but I think it’s all quite interesting to ponder. Looking forward to what should be a good game.
