Don’t panic!
The bookies generally know what they’re doing. I don’t want to oversimplify, but I believe the following is a fair argument for calming down. For each game you can see the decimal odds Ladbrokes gave for each outcome (thanks to Football Data for the info.)
Oh look, we’re exactly where they expected us to be.
Sure there are problems, but did anyone honestly expect there not to be? That’s football. If you’re going to lose games (and we are) then you’ll make mistakes, be less than perfect.
I’ll do a full post in the near future looking at some of the perceived issues, but in my opinion we’re almost doing alright. Could be better, of course, but there’s a long way to go.
We beat Arsenal but lost to West Ham.
I have a rule of thumb which says that we need to target our 15 home games against other than Champions League teams. Win those and we have 45 points and we’re safe. All other games can be lost.
Obviously it doesn’t work out like that but at the moment our score is straight par.
In terms of performance we’re conceding very few but scoring even less. That suggests to me that the problem isn’t really bad defending or the midfield not protecting the defence but simply that we’re either not creating enough or taking those chances we create.
I think its a bit of both and hopefully a fit AJ will make the difference.
As it is I think that by and large all 4 of our midfield are below their best. Whether that’s temporary or whether there’s something seriously wrong I don’t know.
Alternatively we’d be great if Seol were deported and Nevland played every game.
Thanks Rich – that is making me feel a lot better and of course, as Tony says, all we need to do is dump Seol and play Nevland every week and we’ll be challenging for Europe!
If we don’t hurry up and play Nevland I worry that Real Madrid will steal him in January.
I still think we’ll avoid relegation but it’s sad that these four losses have changed our perspective and this is what it’s now come to, again. At the beginning of the season, and after the Bolton game, we were hoping/wondering whether we could finish more comfortably around 11th/12th or even push for the top half with some luck.
What frustrates me is the lack of ambition. If Hodgson and we as fans have the mentality that it’s ok to lose at places like Hull and West Brom, knowing that we’re only aiming for 45ish points and that most of them can probably be picked up at home – well, firstly there’s no better way of ensuring we do lose those games; secondly it’s pretty damn unexciting. Oh and let’s not bother with the cups either – what an annoying inconvenience they are. In fact, shall we just forfeit all our away games and just play everyone once at home? It would be much quicker and less effort for all concerned.
We should be really going for it every game; I see no reason not to. And I find the alternative mentality not only dishearteningly unambitious but also dangerous – if we are content to plod along aiming to just avoid the drop, inevitably one year the home points won’t quite happen and we will end up relegated.
Jamie – my ambitions, if such they are, say nothing for what Roy’s might be or, of course, MAF.
What I meant was that in terms of avoiding relegation those are the most likely games to win. Accordingly if we’re winning those and picking up points elsewhere we’re doing well. If we can’t win those matches we either compensate away from home or end up relegated.
Particularly given the type of player and manager we have I think we need to go for it every game rather than hope that we can pick up points by keeping it tight because, unfortunately and actually, we can’t.
And my point is just that we need to be realistic. Obviously we’d hope to pinch a few unexpected points here and there, but the fact that we haven’t is not reason to despair. The results we’ve seen were always the most likely to happen.
Don’t panic is exactly right. We might have expected a slightly better return from our trips to Hull and West Brom, but who ever thought that these two clubs would be third and ninth in the table after seven matches!
Only one goal (a penalty) scored in the last four games is the biggest problem, but with AJ back and Zamora fully fit I can’t believe we won’t put that right. At Hull we could have been out of sight before they got going, but only took one of our chances. Thank goodness AJ didn’t get the staight red his tackle on Ilunga probably deserved.
Do you remember towards the end of Tigana’s time we would pass, pass, pass but couldn’t get into the final third of the field? We’re much better than that now, although 63% possession but only 51% territory against West Brom is slightly worrying.
Thanks for a bit of perspective. I’m still frightened though. when I look across the league, I have trouble picking out 3 teams that I think we’re clearly better than.
here’s my other old friend, the league table by goal difference (which is generally a good indicator of how good a team is/how well it’s playing):
Team GD PTS
Chelsea 11 17
Arsenal 8 13
Liverpool 6 17
Man City 6 9
Man Utd 4 11
Wigan 3 8
Aston Villa 2 13
West Ham 1 12
West Brom 0 10
Hull -1 14
Middlesbrough -2 9
Sunderland -2 8
Bolton -2 7
Fulham -2 6
Portsmouth -4 12
Everton -4 8
Blackburn -6 10
Newcastle -6 5
Stoke -6 4
Tottenham -6 2
So you’d expect United to get better, Hull to get worse, etc. We’re in a group of teams who aren’t graet but have as much chance as each other of staying up or going down.
Jamie makes a good point but I don’t think there’s a lack of ambition. I think it’s all about how we realise those ambitions. Roy’s way will be slow but steady, I’m hoping the longer he’s with us the better we’ll get but that might not mean a dramatic turnaround in success levels in the next few months. He’s not a manager who is likely to take risks and that might come across as a negative but long term we should be in a much better position this time next year.