Craven Cottage Newsround

November 24, 2008

Territorial missings

Filed under: General — weltmeisterclaude @ 8:50 pm

It pays to keep up with other sports as sometimes there are insights to be gleaned about our own.  To whit, today I was reading an online chat about basketball, over at baseballprospectus.com.

Tony (Brooklyn, NY): What % of defense is an individual skill, and what
% is knowing where you’re supposed to stand and lifting your hands over
your head when the guy shoots?

I’m not sure how to answer because knowing where you’re supposed to
stand is a skill in my book (and a valuable one at that). The more
interesting question to me is what percentage of defense is individual
ability and how much of it is team system/coaching. My answer to that is
as high as 60/40 and as low as 40/60. Then again, the Spurs being 17th
in the league in Defensive Rating might convince me to increase that
number.

This is very relevant isn’t it?  People are spending a lot of time talking about how good Brede Hangeland has been this year – and he has – but how much of this is him and how much is coaching?  I’d be willing to bet that more of it is coaching than almost anyone would guess.  When you think about it, we have a watertight back four consisting of:

a player who couldn’t get much of a game at West Ham, and who was largely seen as a fun but accident prone right back
a player who has always been quietly effective, but who many fans wanted to replace this season
a player who, while imposing, was by no means infallible when he arrived at the club
a player who, while generally handy, has never been enormously well thought of in this country, failing to stick at both Spurs and West Ham.

These are all good players, but until this season, nobody would have expected them to have made up a watertight unit that is among the stingiest in the division.  Sure, they have improved, but I’m sure that much of it is coaching.  As I’ve said before (and I think I got this from Brian), defensive coaching is like baking, where there is a right way to do things and you generally stick to the recipe.   Roy had Finland conceding under a goal a game in Euro 2008 qualifying; this is not a coincidence.

And neither is our inability to score.   One thing that is slightly frustrating on the message boards is people saying “the defence is playing great, but the forwards aren’t doing their bit”.  The two are not unconnected.  Only the very best teams can be super-effective at both ends of the pitch.  The rest of us must strive to be as good as we can at one end and strive to do our best at the other.  Fulham’s play is not massively defensive, in that we do look to play when we have the ball, but our defensive work does require the full commitment of the entire team (while the attack usually only gets 2-3 players).  This being so, when we win the ball back we rarely have a numerical advantage.  We do well in possession, but very rarely will you see Fulham attacking opponents with a numerical advantage.   We are set up not to concede.  This makes our defenders look very good and makes our forwards look less effective than they are.

Another point covered in the basketball discussion is the notion of ‘tempo’.  I looked at this last year, but what it means is this:  if a team has the ball for half an hour and scores 5 goals, they are more efficient in possession than a team that has the ball for 45 minutes and scores 5 goals.  This is regarded as one of the great ‘hidden’ numbers in basketball; if a basketball team attacks quickly and scores 100 points they may not be better at attacking than a team that attacks slowly and scores 90.  But in the book people will see 100 and 90 and make a simple judgement on the relative merits of the two teams.  Which might not be correct.

In football this is most relevant to us as a defensive unit.  If we have the ball we are not defending.  If we have the ball and play within a pre-defined framework that means we are in good positions when we lose the ball, we will not be under that much pressure.  These two points are important distinctions between this year’s team and last year’s team.  Last year’s team could not keep the ball, so spent longer defending.  If you spend an hour defending you are more likely to concede than if you spend 45 minutes defending, right?   And when we do have the ball we are careful with it, we don’t overcommit, and when we lose it our players are very quick to slow down opposing attacks.  And as noted, Hodgson has the defenders themselves set up perfectly too.  Result: much better defence.  Paintsil, Hughes, Hangeland and Konchesky are under a lot less pressure – or are under a better sort of pressure – than would be the case were we not so well coached.

I’m not trying to take anything away from the way our defence has played this year.  Clearly they have been outstanding.   But it is important to realise that they have been put into a situation that is strongly geared towards their success.  They still have to do the job – and they have – but this is a team thing, and sometimes it seems unfair that the team’s attacking players are getting grief when the team is not constructed with them in mind.  Which makes the Johnson and Zamora partnership all the more impressive to me.

9 Comments »

  1. good analysis, albiet right on the cusp of over-analysis. :-)

    To me, the heartbreaking side is the one that can score freely but can’t protect a lead. I much prefer what we have this year, in that I believe we’ll never let a side get out of sight of us. Last season, when we got a lead, I sait and waited for us to surrender it. This season when we get a lead, my mindset is along the lines of the Texas revolutionary flag: COME AND TAKE IT.

    While I would like us to convert more of the chances we’re creating, the truth is that you can secure a point without scoring.

    Comment by HatterDon — November 24, 2008 @ 11:28 pm | Reply

  2. I don’t really see this as a one-way street, either attacking or defensive but not both. Building a solid defensive unit is traditionally the first stage of building a solid allround team. Think Arsenal under George Graham, Bolton under Big Sam or Chelsea under Mourinho. These teams started “negative” but ended up capable of scoring a fairly large number of goals (strangely the reverse — i.e. teaching an attacking team to defend — doesn’t seem to work as well). As we become more comfortable with our defensive unit and the midfield and attack have learnt to play with each other better, I believe Hodgson will gradually loosen the reigns.

    Comment by rjbiii — November 25, 2008 @ 1:09 am | Reply

  3. Very thoughtful analysis. I’m curious about another cross sport sort of analysis. If you like baseball and read baseball prospectus, I’m sure that you’re aware of Pythagorean win percentage. Has anyone ever studied goals scored vs. goals allowed as a predictor of future performance in football?

    Comment by the invisible tree — November 25, 2008 @ 2:05 am | Reply

  4. Exellent analysis which, for me, nails Hodgson’s philosophy, tactics and methods perfectly.

    What it omits is his ability to persuade experienced players to change their games and willingly adopt his methods. That’s expert man management and that’s necessary on top of the tactics. It also involves knowing what type of player to bring to the club and which to let go.

    Many of us were keen to see Elliott Omusuzi given a chance at right back. Watching him on Saturday against Forest he looked desperately ordinary and somewhat lost. Not a good enough player or not being properly coached at Norwich or both? Either way Pantsil was an incredible spot given how well he’s adapted to Hodgson’s methods.

    Why not post this on TIFF. It would provoke a real good discussion.

    Comment by Tony Gilroy — November 25, 2008 @ 7:24 am | Reply

  5. Very good analysis. Last year, when we had a lead, I thought at times it came down to having the stones, or lack thereof as was usually the case, to hold onto the lead. Perhaps more of it was due to coaching, who knows the right answer.

    Comment by SteveM19 — November 25, 2008 @ 12:46 pm | Reply

  6. Are you going to manage a week’s worth of Nirvana related headlines? I think you should try!

    Comment by Chopper — November 25, 2008 @ 1:50 pm | Reply

  7. I think I agree, rjbiii, but there’ll be a very fine line to tread as he goes. Put another way, if he can wrinkle out a few more goals while not conceding we’ll be a seriously good side, and I don’t think we’re quite that good yet. By my reckoning we’re fine as we are, but could probably use a Messi/peak Ronaldinho just to keep opponents honest!

    Comment by weltmeisterclaude — November 25, 2008 @ 10:26 pm | Reply

  8. Excellent, efficiency in possession AND some Ramon Sessions love, all in one place.

    rjbii, I like your thinking. Blackburn might be another example, and their recent finishes in the table are right around where we would like to be one day. In Mark Hughes’ first season, they were very comparable to our current squad (though I’d argue that we’ve been better so far) – very good team defence, not much attacking. The next year, they scored a lot more, still played great defence, and qualified for the UEFA Cup. Blackburn’s style is different, but they built from the back, and have been challenging for Europe ever since.

    Comment by Colin — November 26, 2008 @ 3:28 am | Reply

  9. This is very good stuff and it all makes sense. It does imply that if, say, Kallio had to come in for Hangeland, or Stoor for Pantsil, that the task would be less daunting than if there wasn’t such a coherent plan to slot into.

    As Tony G. notes, there must be a man management aspect to getting old dogs to learn new tricks — as Tigana did upon arrival. But it’s above all about coaching. Fulham’s best spells in the 35 pre-Fayed years all coincided with a coach who went on to work with the full England team: Dave Sexton (the other `Great Escape’), Bill Taylor (FA Cup final), Ray Harford (Macdonald’s team that just missed out on the top). These appear similar times, and so to be savoured while they last — never previously long.

    Comment by b+w geezer — November 26, 2008 @ 9:51 am | Reply


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