With or without you

Right, back to the serious business of using and abusing numbers.

Today my latest thinking (published here a few days ago) hit The Times, and then TiFF.  Someone rightly pointed out that I had forgotten the Schwarzer effect, or The Schwarzer Effect if we’re going to get serious about it.  Say it in Tony Gubba’s voice.  “Schvartser”.

Anyway, how big is The Schwarzer Effect?

I had to find out.

Here’s what I learned.   Our goalkeeper played 128 games for Middlesbrough in the period I could examine, from 2004 to 2008.   In that time he missed 24 games.

In the games he played the team conceded an average of 1.35 goals per game.

In the games he missed the team conceded an average of 1.42 goals per game.

That’s a dead heat really.   The only slight mitigating circumstance is that he missed a seven goal hammering against Arsenal.  Without that his deputies would have averaged only 1.17 goals against.   Now, of course, they did concede those seven goals, so you can’t just ignore it, but still.  We all have bad days.

Are we, then, to conclude that Mark Schwarzer makes no difference?  Not at all.  He seems to have made a very big difference to our team.  The number of times he’s made important (and dramatic) late claims on dangerous crosses already this season…

But no, I think this serves to emphasise a point I half made the other day, that, for the most part, single players don’t make all that much difference to a team if you have other good players available and playing well in a good system.  It’s a theory that is sure to be tested as the season goes on, but I think it’s sound.   Arsenal managed without Thierry Henry, for example.

Final note:  did you see that the Official Site had an interview with Jimmy Bullard about how the opposition can’t score when Fulham are in possession?    I appreciate that this is not the world’s greatest ever insight, but I did make the same point two days ago.   Could it be that Jimmy’s reading?   Of course not, but still, made me wonder.  Actually, if you are employed by Fulham Football Club in any capacity and are reading this, please do drop me an email to say hello.

Roy on video.  Early on he uses the word “filip”. Fantastic.

Other news:  Ed Smith has retired from cricket.   Interesting man, and a fine example of why I go on about luck in sport so much.