Simulations

Interesting:

This seems to have come remarkably close.  As a reminder, I took Fulham’s last four seasons, weighted them so recent seasons were more important than older ones, and added Mark Hughes’ managerial record for good measure.  This gave me an idea of the proportion of wins, draws and losses we might expect.

Then I simulated 1,000 seasons to cover natural variations. 47 points was the most common outcome, and with 45 on the board and two games left that seems likely to be about right.  Might be worth doing this for the whole division next season.