Predictortron week 1 update

Predictortron ii first week test scores:

Man Utd v Liverpool: predicted 1-0 or 2-1 – actual 2-1
Blackburn v QPR: 1-2 – actual 3-2
Bolton v Wigan: 1-0 or 2-1 – actual 1-2
Everton v Chelsea: 1-1 – actual 2-0
Fulham v Stoke: 1-1 or 2-1 – actual 2-1
Sunderland v Arsenal: 1-1 (1-2 next) – actual 1-2
Swansea v Norwich: 2-1 or 0-0 – actual 2-3
Spurs v Newcastle: 1-1 – actual 5-0

What do we think then? The idea is that we’re in the right ballpark. All I can do now is add more games to the database which should further refine the results.

Presently I don’t think we did badly. Man Utd v Liverpool was right, the boldness in predicting an away win for QPR is encouraging in some ways even if it didn’t get it right, and Everton v Chelsea finishing 1-1 certainly feels about right.

Fulham v Stoke was there or thereabouts, Sunderland v Arsenal we had 1-1 but 1-2 next down the list, Swansea v Norwich must go down as a surprise result so I’m happy with the prediction. And we missed Spurs v Newcastle by a mile.

All in all I think, had we put money down on the games, we’d have come out ahead, just about. You can never predict football completely but this feels like a good start. I think we could have made money on a ‘correct score’ series of bets here (or perhaps not), each result tending to be between 6-1 and 10-1.

9 Comments on “Predictortron week 1 update”

John_Smith
February 12, 2012

I think making more than one prediction for the same game is cheating rather. For me you shouldn’t say one game will end 1-1 or 2-1, you have to choose one result or the other.

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- rich
  February 12, 2012
  
  well the two scores come through equally.
  
  Reply
Snakey
February 12, 2012

There is a fine line between all over it and in too deep – I’ve had a couple of sherbets so for me it’s… zzzzzzzzz

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- rich
  February 12, 2012
  
  righto, thanks for that.
  
  Reply
A Yank
February 12, 2012

I would actually list multiple possible results, but put the percentage likelihoods along with them.

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- rich
  February 12, 2012
  
  Then you just end up with lots of 10% 2-1, 9% 1-0 and I’m not sure what it all means.
  
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  - chopper68
    February 12, 2012
    
    Maybe the key thing is how many simulations suggest a Home Win, Draw or Away Win. That’s the lower risk bet, from there you can suggest most likely scores.
    
    So yesterday I’m guessing the most likely result was a home win and the most likley home win result was a 2-1 win. Bingo! Spot on.
    
    Reply
rich
February 12, 2012

taking this a bit further:

Manchester United 07/08 v Fulham 06/07

0-0 3
1-0 4
1-1 2
2-0 5
2-1 2
3-0 2
4-0 3
4-1 1
4-3 1
5-0 2
6-0 1
7-2 1
9-1 1

Leeds Utd 68-69 v Fulham 06/07

0-0 3
0-2 1
1-0 10
1-1 2
1-2 1
2-0 16
2-1 7
2-2 4
3-0 9
3-1 3
3-2 3
4-0 5
4-1 2
4-3 1
5-0 3
6-1 1

And so on….

Not everyone’s cup of tea but I like all this. Might try to have a tournament of every team that ever there was.

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AFJ
February 13, 2012

Following your previous post predicting 2-1, I laid a tentative £5 on it at 7/1, and won! Yipee!

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