Continuing b+w geezer’s in depth look at Fulham’s finances:
Fulham’s Assets
Much of the money poured into Fulham has gone for ever. Marlet, Goma etc. have no value now. But some assets endure – like Craven Cottage and the training ground. So how much are they worth and what might they be worth if circumstances changed?
In their latest accounts, Charlton value their stadium and training ground at just under £40m, of which £6.7m relates to the Freehold Land itself. The valuation was carried out by Chartered Surveyors “on the basis of existing use.”
Fulham’s Accounts to June 2006 value `Freehold Land’ at £9.21m and the `Stands, Fixtures, Fittings’ and so on at £21.6m, making a total of £30.7m. This seems proportional to the Charlton case – the Valley is larger and has permanent stands on all four sides, whereas the two ends of Craven Cottage have only a 15-year-ish shelf life. So Fulham’s figures tally on the basis of existing use.
But what if the use changed? What if homes were built on the land?
Fulham’s training ground is on Metropolitan Open Land within Kingston, whose Unitary Development Plan (“policies remaining effective throughout the borough”) is emphatic. “Approval will not be given for development within the Metropolitan Open Land.” This formal policy, combined with known local feelings and other case histories makes it unrealistic to foresee housing on Motspur Park. No purchaser of FFC could factor this in as a prospect.
What, though, of the Cottage?
Well, FFC would need to be re-housed first — at whatever that cost — or else ruthlessly closed down. At that stage, the Council might or might not be ready to permit housing, but clearly there would be less goodwill in the air in the ruthless closedown scenario. The fate of FFC would also have a bearing on the degree of opposition any development proposal aroused. Based on history, however, a developer would expect a rough ride taking several years. They might stand a fair chance of winning at the end of a public enquiry and appeals process, but could not be fully confident of that.
I estimate that FFC might squeeze as much as £60 million out of a developer for the Craven Cottage site if there were eventually permission for housing – i.e. a little over twice its current asset value. And the developer might go on to achieve a £38 million profit if all went well. But it would be a very risky business and both those figures are at the high end of expectations, as I explain below in detail.
Subject to obtaining planning permission for 300 flats on Craven Cottage, Fulham River Projects agreed five years ago to pay an eventual £50m for the vacant site. As regards the profit that FRP claimed to expect to make eventually, evidence emerged in a High Court case soon afterwards: it was £30 million, or about 15%. The estimate had been made to a bank being asked to finance the project, so was more likely to be an over-estimate than an under-estimate.
On behalf of BTTC, I subsequently checked out the figures and reported that they seemed to add up. Let’s now try to update.
The FRP plan was for a 300-flat development in which 30% would be social housing. Both figures are on the optimistic side, if anything, but I’ll stick with them, except that instead of Social Housing as such, I’ll assume payment to the Council in lieu. (This is just for simplicity of discussion — the overall profit margin should come out the same as if the social housing were actually built. That’s how payments in lieu work.)
Average home prices in the borough of H&F are £451k according to the latest Land Registry figures, compared with 280k in 2000. Since the FRP deal 5 years ago, they have risen almost 50%, but so have development costs in London. (According to specialist consultant EC Harris’ 2007 Economic Survey of the topic).
There are many much more expensive flats further east in the borough, nearer to another football club, at developments such as Imperial Wharf. But the most expensive flat currently advertised via RightMove and in our area is in the block next door, Alder Lodge. The asking price is £615,000 for a 3-bedroom flat with only partial river views. Five minutes’ walk north, just beyond the end of Stevenage Road, are two 2-bedroom flats for sale in another modern block. The one with a riverside balcony and really stupendous views is priced at £480k; the other, which appears to lack them, at £399,950.
Those are current realities. However, for any redevelopment of Craven Cottage, there would be a significant premium on the above prices because a) the dwellings would be brand-new and b) FFC would have disappeared.
Applying generous lashings of that premium, I’ll therefore estimate that 40% of the flats would fully, directly overlook the river or Bishops Park and sell (according to size) at an average of £1 million, while 60% would have river views that could only be described as `partial,’ at best, and would sell (according to position and size) for an average of £0.7m.
That makes for total sales receipts of £246 million. Yes, of course these are estimates, but if you start imagining significantly more than that, it’s simply unrealistic for the area, even with FFC departed. At the time of writing, based on 376 properties, Londonpropertywatch.co.uk reports that 2-bed homes in SW6 average £499k and 3-bed ones £750k. Therefore it’s likely that I have erred on the optimistic side in my average of £820k per flat, as, with 300 to pack in, they surely won’t all be 3-bedroom.
Nevertheless, sticking with £246m as the developer’s gross receipts, it’s then deductions all the way….
£49m A 20% payment to the Council in lieu of social housing. (Note 1)
£75m Development costs (Note 2)
£21m Finance costs (Note 3)
£3m Sales and marketing costs.
That leaves £98m for profit margin minus land costs.
Paying £60m to FFC for the land would leave £38m profit, a margin of 15%, which is the same percentage as Fulham River Projects forecast in 2002.
Variables:
Pack in more than the 300 flats that FRP envisaged? Unlikely. The site is only 2.44 hectares and so 300 dwellings is 123 per hectare which is over 40% more than the H&F borough average.
A requirement for less than 30% social housing (or for payment in lieu thereof)? Very unlikely. A higher requirement would be more on the cards. The Greater London Authority’s `Affordable Housing in London Spatial Development Strategy’ document talks only of 35% and 50% requirements.
So…..this completes my series of reports based on the latest FFC accounts. It remains only to write a comment piece with some overall points arising in my personal opinion. I shall post that quite shortly..
NOTES.
1) Affordable Housing in London Spatial Development Strategy Technical Report One July 2001. Page 41.
2) As above: Fig. 8.1, page 33. (Market values compared with development cost and TCI)
3) Assumes it takes 3 years to sew up planning permission, following objections and appeal, and then 2 years fully to execute the development. Only £10m is payable for the land at the outset. Finance for the remaining £50m, plus development costs, is taken to apply from Year 4.