Subbing in the second half: addendum

I guess this is part 2 of yesterday’s post, but today we’re looking at Roy’s record at subbing in the second half when down at half time. Thankfully, for my archiving-searching-sake at least, it only happened five times during the 08/09 season. From F365:

Team PLD LHT W D L F A GD GFA GAA PpG Pts
Fulham (7) 38 5 1 0 4 5 11 -6 1.00 2.20 0.60 3

And those matches are as follows:

  • WestHam: Zero. [Down 2-0, Fulham would lose 2-1.]
  • @United: Olivier Dacourt (67), Robert Milsom (80), Wayne Brown (86). [Down 2-0, Fulham would lose 3-0.]
  • @City: Kamara (86), Gera (86), Dacourt (89). [Down 1-0, Fulham would win 3-1.]
  • @Chelsea: Dacourt(76). [Down 2-1, Fulham would lose 3-1.]
  • Everton: Zamora (69), Dacourt (73), Smalling (77). [Down 1-0, Fulham would lose 2-0.]

So of the five times Fulham were losing at the break, at no point did Roy make his first sub before the 58th minute. Only three times, twice in the same match (the final game against Everton), did he even make at least one sub before the 73rd minute. And only five times total did he make at least one sub before the 79th minute.

One could argue that by not following Myers’ advice, it’s probably no surprise then that Fulham only scored 4 second half goals  when down at half time, and three of those came in the same game. [Boy, thank God that of the two Fulham matches I’ve ever been to, one was the aforementioned game at City. I witnessed history!] I think I also found an error is F365’s record keeping, as I can only tally 4 goals whereas they have 5. Alas, the point remains.

Conversely, Fulham were ranked 5th overall when trailing at half time; and the 5 instances are tied for second with Chelsea and United, and just behind leading Liverpool’s paltry 4. This, more than most other stats, proves the power of Roy’s squad to hold an early lead — something Sanchez’s team was miserable at.

Additionally, looking at Football-Lineups.com’s overall substitute’ data, we see that, on average, almost all of Roy’s subs in the 08/09 season were extremely late in the game.

Most In Most Out
Nevland 17 times 11 min avg
Gera 12 7
Dacourt 9 16
Kamara, D 9 18
Dempsey 7 15
Baird 7 5
Andreasen 6 5
Zamora, B 3 29
KH Seol 2 17
Stoor 2 26
Etuhu 2 32
Teymourian 1 9
Brown, Wayne (MF) 1 4
Milsom 1 10
Kallio 1 16
Gray, J 1 5
Johnson, Andy 1 14
Smalling 1 13
Zamora, B 16 times 75 min avg
Murphy, Danny (1977) 11 83
Gera 9 71
Dempsey 8 87
Johnson, Andy 7 78
Davies, S 7 81
Bullard 6 79
Etuhu 5 76
Nevland 4 66
Paintsil 3 78
KH Seol 2 82
Hughes, A 2 76
Kallio 1 74
Baird 1 46
Konchesky 1 82
38 games found

To put things into context, although a bit varied considering our Europa campaign, here are last year’s stats:

Most In Most Out
Nevland 11 times 17 min avg
Greening 8 24
Gera 8 34
Okaka Chuka 8 24
Elm, D 7 16
Riise, B 6 8
Etuhu 6 15
Davies, S 5 17
Dikgacoi 5 14
Kamara, D 4 15
Baird 3 22
Smalling 3 19
KH Seol 2 0
Johnson, E 2 11
Duff 2 30
Dempsey 2 37
Stoor 2 12
Johnson, Andy 1 19
Kallio 1 44
Kelly 1 31
Zamora, B 11 times 72 min avg
Duff 8 65
Murphy, Danny (1977) 7 75
Nevland 7 75
Gera 6 72
Dempsey 6 72
Greening 5 83
Davies, S 5 57
Kamara, D 4 76
Paintsil 4 70
Johnson, Andy 3 73
Kelly 3 68
Riise, B 3 54
Elm, D 3 70
Konchesky 2 58
Etuhu 2 80
Baird 2 81
Hangeland 2 54
Okaka Chuka 2 80
Dikgacoi 2 57
38 games found

And for the sake of brevity, here are this year’s substitute data under Mark Hughes.

4 thoughts on “Subbing in the second half: addendum

  1. This is extremely thought provoking. It would be quite awesome to see 09/10 “when trailing at half-time” marks, as well.

    Fascinating to see how many more goals we have scored in the second half this year v. 08/09. In fact, I would posit that this data hits at precisely where Roy lacked a little something and where Hughes perhaps lacks something.

    To say that it is remarkable that, in a 38 game season, Fulham trailed at half-time only 5 times (only 13% of the time) is an understatement (08/09). That is Champions League material. So Roy was exceptional at making sure that Fulham was competitive going into the second half. The problems we can definitely say, based on this data, was that if we did trail there was no Plan B. This has been a criticism of Roy at L-pool. I would estimate as well, that the 08/09 team did not win many games with a last-15 (75-90th mins) goal, and when it did lose at other points it was because of goals in this time (Blackburn, Hull to name a few losses).

    Compare that to this year: Fulham has given up a lot of goals before half-time, and has been behind frequently by half-time. Hughes’s problem is that we come out of the gate slowly. However, Hughes has been magnificent in turnging things around, seen in the number of times where we’ve either won or gotten something out of a game where we were losing. Indeed, I believe Fulham is 6th in second half results.

    If only we could get the Roy results to combine with the Hughes results! We would have a top 6 team!

    1. Ask and you shall receive! 09/10’s Losing at Half Time Record:

      Pld: 38
      LHT:16
      W:3
      D:2
      L:11
      GF:13
      GA:30
      GD: -17
      GFA: 0.81
      GAA: 1.87
      PpG: 0.68
      Pts: 11

      Yet, despite the 11 losses, it was still 4th best in the league behind United, Arse, and Chelsea.

      Back tracking a bit though, a big issue for Fulham under Roy in 08/09 was when we were drawing at half time. Our record was W3 D10 L8 GF12 GA15 GD-3, good enough for 18th overall. We had the third worst Goals For Average (.57), and the most instances of drawing at HT (21). Additionally, this improved only slightly in 09/10.

      That probably proves the point that Roy had no ‘Plan B’ more than anything else. If things didn’t go right, right away, well…

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