Predictortron ’11

Further to Timmy’s post, perhaps it’s time to revisit the predictortron.

As you will recall, we fired this up last year to see if a slow start necessarily meant we were doomed. The predictortron was comforting, told us not to worry and gave us a hug. It said we’d finish with 46 points, and we got 48, so that was nice.

What does the predictortron say this year?

Once more, we make use of exotic sounding Monte Carlo simulations, in this case running 5,000 of the buggers. We estimate how good the team should be using results from the previous three seasons (more recent seasons get higher emphasis), adding in Martin Jol’s managerial record, a pinch of salt, a grind of pepper, and the all important knob of butter. Then the predictortron takes this record and runs those 5,000 seasons on a game by game basis.

The answers:

Predictortron, at the start of the season, would have had us down for 52-57 points. We seem to get a slight bump because Jol was successful at Spurs, but also because some of our poor seasons were long enough ago that they no longer drag us down. So there we are: 50+ points, with 54 being the most likely.

Unfortunately we currently only have seven of these, so all we need to do is consult Predictortron and see what happens when the team only has 7 points at this juncture:

Once more, there’s no need to panic. 46 points is a likely destination, with various values around there also common. We have very little chance of hitting the expected target in the mid fifties, but for the time being should feel relatively comfortable about not being relegated, either.

4 thoughts on “Predictortron ’11

  1. The issue is (obviously) that if you have a slow start, even a fairly normal performance the rest of the way isn’t going to be a great deal of use. Last season’s second half surge under Hughes was extraoardinary, and it’s not really clear how we did it…. whether we can replicate this with a changeing, small and tired squad is debateable, which is why the model’s inferred rating of the squad may be a bit on the high side, and the points expectations could be towards the left hand side of the distribution. So I suppose it depends how you see things: are we a good team doing badly or a bad team doing badly? Even if it’s the first, history is littered with teams who were ‘too good to go down’…

    1. I would argue that we will be ok because:

      1) we are drawing lots of games, rather than losing and being played off the park
      2) Our goal difference remains ok

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