How are we doing?

Rich’s law for seeing how it’s all going

The law states that, at any given point in a season, Fulham should have about the same number of wins, draws and losses. Any imbalance one way or the other is either a signifier that Fulham have been better or worse than expected.

We currently have a record of: P13, W2, D6, L5

How to read this, then?

By Rich’s law for seeing how it’s all going (RLFSHAG) we are only really two defeats off pace, while having an extra draw in our favour.

Against that, lose tonight and we go to P14, W2, D6, L6, which means that RLFSHAG can only reach equilibrium in the near future if we win our next four games, which is a big ask.

But there’s nothing to say we have to get back on track in the near future.

Let’s give ourselves until game 24. To be on track after that match we need to go W6, D2, L3 over the next eleven matches, which looks tricky but might be achievable.

If we’re still off then it’s time to panic.

5 thoughts on “How are we doing?

  1. Interesting way of looking at it. Still too early in the season to come to any kind of conclusion – just look at the similar position we were in this time last year under Hughes. 24 games in might give a better picture, but it’s still so damn tight from the bottom all the way up to about 9th that it might go to the wire. Teams will rise out of it and fall into it as the season draws on, but at this moment in time Fulham need to focus on getting themselves points on the board.

    I also see it a little differently. While ‘luck’ is often seen as a deciding factor in a single game, I believe that you make your own luck. Games that we should have won (Villa H, Blackburn H, Everton H, WBA A) and drawn (Spurs H, Newcastle A) have been good performances missing that bit of luck that would put a completely different outlook on things for Fulham. However, surely it can’t be possible that ‘luck’ is the determining factor of our whole season up to now.

    Surely there’s something else at fault here. I think it’s fitness, not just because of the extra European games, but because it is something Jol has always neglected. Just look at the number of goals we are conceding in the last 10/20 minutes of games. Our defense is still in the top 5 in the league, but these late goals are really costing us dear.

  2. Lower the bar somewhat to what constitutes safety and my guideline is winning all the home games other than those against the top 6. Nothing away from home. That gives us 39 points and with only a slight touch of wood that’s enough.

    On that basis 12 points is par and losing to Liverpool is expected.

  3. So at the end of the season RLFSHAG (love it) says that Fulham will have at least 49 points (P38 W12 D13 L13). Is this the definition of mid-table respectability?

    In the last 10 seasons Fulham have had at least 49 points on 3 occasions (and 48 points twice). Those 3 occasions were the only seasons when the goal difference was positive. As we’re only -1 at the moment, there is still hope that this season could have a reasonable end. A few more 6-0s would be great, but I’d settle for us winning a few 1-0 with a goal in the last minute (not the other way around).

    Is it snowing on this page?

  4. Ok. Good theory. Lets give it a bit of testing….

    So at any point we should have even win, draw, loss. So every 3 games we should have 4 points (3+1+0) so 1.333 points per game.

    So at game 14 we should have 18.7 (14 * 1.333, we are on 15) and at game 13 (when article was written) we should have 17.3 point (we were on 12)

    And for the season we should get to 50.7 points (38 * 1.33) I think this a bit high historically, but about right.

    I still go on a point a game to stay up (we are on 15 points after 14 games so safe) – 38 points for the year which gets safety most years. My theory is for bottom 10 teams to win the home games (30 points) and draw the away game (another 10) to get to 40 points safety.

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