Jol’s “Plan”

The past month has been a little crazy for managers across the Football League. Seven new managers have been hired since January 24. QPR is on their 10th manager in the past 4.5 years. Chelsea, their seventh.  (And soon to be 8th?) Arsenal fans are in mutiny (again) against Arsene Wenger.

What does this have to do with Fulham? Well, a lot.

With all the discussion about Jol’s plan for the club, there’s an understanding that he’s in it for the “long haul”. That he won’t pull a Hughes (or, yes, even a Hodgson) and just leave after a season or three.

But, statistically, what is there to think that wont happen?

Here is a link to the longest-serving managers in the entire Football League. Obviously, Ferguson, Wenger, and Moyes are Win, Place, Show respectively. But the names below that are quite interesting.

At a quiet fifth is Tony Pulis at nearly 6 years. Behind him is Terry Brown, who’s managed AFC Wimbledon for almost half the time the club has existed.

After skipping Steve Evans of Crawley and Kenny Jacket of Millwall (who is inching ever so closely hot seat) is everyone’s favorite: Harry Redknapp.That’s right, the manager that seems to duck out on a club whenever there’s financial ruin on the horizon (i.e., about 2-3 seasons) is the tenth longest current serving manager in England. And is in the works to leave Spurs for the English National Team.

Additionally, after doing some minimal math, it seems that the average stay for all current 92 managers is just under two years.

Now, the reason for managerial hiring and firing are numerous. Recently, with the vast amount of money being thrown spend on transfer fees, coupled with the amount of television money at stake for finishing, or not finishing, in a higher or current league leads to an extremely cutthroat environment.

It’s probably no secret then that the longest-serving Championship manager is Nigel Clough of Derby County who’s been a manager for just over 3 years. (Jacket’s Milwall was promoted two seasons ago.)

Now, I’m not saying Jol will pull a Hughes and jet in May. But, we ARE his fourth club in 5 years. So it makes one wonder, no?

(p.s. If anyone can find similar stats for managers in Serie A, La Liga, et al, I’d be quite curious to know how they stack up. I think their attrition rate is higher, no?)

10 thoughts on “Jol’s “Plan”

  1. He might leave in May, but I would be surprised. If he was only going to be here for the short term, he has made some massive decisions (selling Zamora) and tried to completely overhaul the system.

    Add to this that leaving Fulham will achieve nothing for him and he may well never manage in England again, and it appears that his desire to return to England may have been instrumental in his previous job jumping.

    My guess is he will be here for the following 2 seasons and will either (a) Get a bigger job (b) sign an extension or, less likely (c) get fired. In that order.

    1. Yeah, don’t think he’d leave in May either. Just seems there’s a sense that Jol is here until he, well, no one has any idea. Not even in the realm of discussion.

      Whereas the overall stats show it may be only a few seasons.

      1. yeah, the international break is NEXT weekend. Perhaps you’ll be able to do an article on Wolves’ “new” gaffer when they hire him in May.

  2. You shouldn’t forget that his jumping began when he was (unfairly) sacked by Tottenham. Also, I wouldn’t even blame a groundsman for leaving Ajax. That club is nothing but a hot mess. I’m hoping Jol has an active summer in the market and quickly assembles the squad he wants.

    1. Such a good point regarding Ajax, and one seemingly overlooked in the article. Ajax has gained quite a reputation for being a horribly run club at the office/board level in the past few years…They haven’t had a single manager last more than one year since Ronald Koeman (2001-2005).
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFC_Ajax#List_of_Ajax_managers

      Something also overlooked (or at least not pointed out) is that the Wikipedia list is for managers at their current position. After all, Jol spent almost exactly 3 years with Spurs before being sacked under said dubious circumstances.

      1. Ajax and Rangers are sort of like the anti-Lyon’s of Europe. They’re prime examples of how not to run a CL level club in a small market.

          1. Yes, but Lyon had three things Ajax and Rangers lacked: 1. a stable ownership and management team, 2. a general manager who called the shots (transfers, 1st team line-ups, youth development, etc.), and 3. a positive revenue stream. Lyon’s success is a model “smaller” clubs *cough cough FULHAM cough* could follow. And in truth we’re probably pretty close to it already…

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