Confused

Away matches Fulham won under Roy Hodgson in 2.5 seasons: 7
Away matches WBA has won under Roy Hodgson in (nearly) one calendar year: 8

Matches Fulham scored 3 goals under Roy Hodgson in 2.5 seasons: 11
Matches WBA scored 3 goals under Roy Hodgson in (nearly) one calendar year: 7

WBA goals scored in past two games: 9 (5 and 4 respectively)
Fulham matches under Roy Hodgson in which 4 or more goals were scored: Zero

?!?!?!?!

9 thoughts on “Confused

  1. Haha -wow, that is indeed curious. It makes you wonder, for as much as we talk about managers, how much responsibility, in the end, do they bear? In baseball, for instance, the stat gurus at Baseball Prospectus (and such) have done what appears to be a decent job of isolating a manager’s impact. On the generous side they claim a manager might be responsible for 5 wins, which in a 162 game season is only 3% of all games. I’ve always suspected in soccer it’s higher than that due to things like strategy and starting 11. Then my brain starts to hurt before I arrive at any satisfying way of judging their real impact. Odemwingie’s 5 goals in the last 2 matches clearly isn’t down to Hodgson–it’s a given he’ll start every game with this team.

    1. I posted this earlier today on TIFF, but here are the number of points we have amassed at the same stage each season (i.e. after 26 games played), with the manager responsible and final points total in brackets

      2011-2012: 33 (Jol)
      2010-2011: 30 (Hughes) (final points: 49)
      2009-2010: 34 (Hodgson) (46)
      2008-2009: 34 (Hodgson) (53)
      2007-2008: 19 (Sanchez) (36)
      2006-2007: 32 (Coleman) (39)
      2005-2006: 32 (Coleman) (48)
      2004-2005: 29 (Coleman) (44)
      2003-2004: 35 (Tigana) (52)
      2002-2003: 30 (Tigana) (48)
      2001-2002: 35 (Tigana) (44)

      (Note that Coleman and Tigana were both sacked in April, after the 26 game barrier. Sanchez was sacked at Christmas, so some of the points responsibility was Hodgson’s).

      Lots of consistency there. I’d say, what you can read from it is that bad managers (Sanchez) certainly can have a highly negative effect on the team’s performance, as can managers who lose the dressing room and/or their way (see Coleman’s final season). It follows, therefore, that a good manager and his staff with a happy dressing room can get teams playing at or above their level.

      Similarly, there is a nice piece in Four Four Two this month on substitutions, which eliminates all goals scored by substitutes and creates a new league table based on that. Norwich would be second from bottom, indicating that Paul Lambert has been pretty good or very lucky with substitutions this season. It is a highly imperfect analysis, but if you did the same analysis of the length of a coach’s career, you could perhaps get some sense as to how important the manager is during a game.

      1. Colin b showed that subs will score twice as frequently per minute than if they were starting. i don’t know if this is universal but if it is then managers really should use fresh legs more often.

        1. Is Hodgson using subs more now? I seem to remember being frustrated often that Hodgson would leave the same 11 for the full 90. It probably didn’t happen that much, but i’ve got this idea stuck in my head that he did it a lot.

        2. Do you have a link to that? I’d be interested in reading it.

          What happened to Colin’s work? Championship and Best used to be second only to this site. And his stats database doesn’t seem to load any more.

        1. Yes he does. He and the Swansea revolution (hard to call that the work of one man) have been real breaths of fresh air this season.

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