What’s left

It had to happen sometime. Here’s my look at what’s left. I appreciate that this is all conjecture, but for my own curiosity I wanted to see everything laid out.

Thoughts return to the previous Great Escape, at which point I think we were at about 20/1 to stay up with three games left. It *feels* as if that’s about right now, in so far as we have a slim chance but no more. Football betting tips are probably worth investigating for another perspective

I would guess that five teams are still in the mix. These are they:

ASTON VILLA, P35, 35 Pts, -17 GD, Last 6 games: 1 pt, remaining fixtures: 3/5 Hull H; 7/5 Man City A; 11/5 Tottenham A

It’s so hard to predict games at this point in the season, but Villa are in dire form and have a tough run in. Hull at home is vital. There is a good chance they could end the season on 35 points, which means that they’re extremely vulnerable. You would rather have these points on the board, and I’m sure they’ll pick up a point somewhere, but we always think about trapdoor teams and this year’s looks like being Villa.

SUNDERLAND, P35, 32 Pts, -20 GD, Last 6: 7 pts: 3/5 Man United A; 7/5 West Brom H; 11/5 Swansea H

Are playing with belief now. Those 7 points in the last six games were all earned in the last three matches. They might be playing above themselves, but momentum is everything at this point in the season, or at least it can feel that way. They have two very winnable games left, too. The problem for Fulham then is not just getting to 35 points, but ensuring that three other teams are still beneath us. And that’s the big thing. Sunderland really ought to get to at least 35 now. Villa, with a single draw, will be up to 36.

NORWICH, P36, 32 Pts, -32 GD, Last 6: 3 pts: 4/5 Chelsea A; 11/5 Arsenal H

Everyone thinks they are doomed and they more than likely are. You never know but these are awkward games and Norwich haven’t really shown enough to suggest that they might be able to get the points they will need.

FULHAM, P36, 31 Pts, -42 GD, Last 6: 7 pts: 3/5 Stoke A; 11/5 Crystal Palace H

The trouble here is that Sunderland and Villa have a much better goal difference and both will more than likely get at least to 35 points. In this sense the chances are that a win and a draw won’t be enough. Fulham need to win both remaining games, and even that won’t be enough if Villa or Sunderland show any form.

CARDIFF, P36, 30 Pts, -38 GD, Last 6: 5 pts: 3/5 Newcastle A; 11/5 Chelsea H

In the same boat as Fulham really.

So yes, the Hull draw probably doomed us, didn’t it?

 

6 thoughts on “What’s left

  1. Yes, the Hull draw was critical but conceding 79 goals in 36 matches speaks volumes . We have been poor all season and if Magath was a miracle worker then we should not have given up soft goals against Spurs , as well as Hull .

    I think we will all feel a lot better if we fail to win at Stoke as we won’t be seen as if only men but rather as one of the worst 3 teams in the division and we can move on and concentrate on rebuilding the damage that our chief executive has caused.

  2. Yep, that was my take when I looked at it early this week. IF we win the last 2 games we are about 50-50 chance of staying up (villa losing 3 OR Sunderland not getting 4 points – ignoring Norwich). If we win 1 and draw 1 it gives us only a tiny chance – Sunderland not getting 3 points.

    BUT – can we actually get anything at Stoke?

  3. West Brom are still in possible danger though.

    P35, 36 Pts; 4/5 Arsenal (A), 7/5 Sunderland (A), 11/5 Stoke (A)

    If they lose to Arsenal and Sunderland lose to Man Utd this coming Saturday (which odds would say they will), then they are each fighting each other for their lives. Given form and home advantage Sunderland to win that and WBA then have the same tricky away fixture as we have this coming saturday.

    We still need to win two games though.

  4. The Hull draw was painful, but that was merely the last chance. You can go back through the entire season and pick one example after another, any of them turning out slightly different and we are faced with a decent chance now as opposed to a slim chance. It was that kind of season. No matter how often we tossed the dice we never got double sixes but often got double ones.

    At least CCN was a pleasure to read through it all.

  5. Assuming that Cardiff and Norwich will finish below us, it’s then a question of who else we can overtake. Who can predict what Sunderland will do after their recent results? However it seems almost certain that if we only get four more points we will finish below them. Villa, though, with their desperate lack of form look vulnerable. I can’t see them getting anything from their two away games; what is vital for us is that they don’t beat Hull. Given that we can’t overtake them unless we get two wins, it doesn’t matter whether they lose or draw this game.

    So for us nothing less than two wins will do. Before last Saturday two home wins and a draw at Stoke looked good enough. Now our Hull and Stoke results need to be reversed. Should we pull it off this Saturday, I still think Palace, even at home, will be a very tough nut to crack.

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