It had to happen sometime. Here’s my look at what’s left. I appreciate that this is all conjecture, but for my own curiosity I wanted to see everything laid out.
Thoughts return to the previous Great Escape, at which point I think we were at about 20/1 to stay up with three games left. It *feels* as if that’s about right now, in so far as we have a slim chance but no more. Football betting tips are probably worth investigating for another perspective
I would guess that five teams are still in the mix. These are they:
ASTON VILLA, P35, 35 Pts, -17 GD, Last 6 games: 1 pt, remaining fixtures: 3/5 Hull H; 7/5 Man City A; 11/5 Tottenham A
It’s so hard to predict games at this point in the season, but Villa are in dire form and have a tough run in. Hull at home is vital. There is a good chance they could end the season on 35 points, which means that they’re extremely vulnerable. You would rather have these points on the board, and I’m sure they’ll pick up a point somewhere, but we always think about trapdoor teams and this year’s looks like being Villa.
SUNDERLAND, P35, 32 Pts, -20 GD, Last 6: 7 pts: 3/5 Man United A; 7/5 West Brom H; 11/5 Swansea H
Are playing with belief now. Those 7 points in the last six games were all earned in the last three matches. They might be playing above themselves, but momentum is everything at this point in the season, or at least it can feel that way. They have two very winnable games left, too. The problem for Fulham then is not just getting to 35 points, but ensuring that three other teams are still beneath us. And that’s the big thing. Sunderland really ought to get to at least 35 now. Villa, with a single draw, will be up to 36.
NORWICH, P36, 32 Pts, -32 GD, Last 6: 3 pts: 4/5 Chelsea A; 11/5 Arsenal H
Everyone thinks they are doomed and they more than likely are. You never know but these are awkward games and Norwich haven’t really shown enough to suggest that they might be able to get the points they will need.
FULHAM, P36, 31 Pts, -42 GD, Last 6: 7 pts: 3/5 Stoke A; 11/5 Crystal Palace H
The trouble here is that Sunderland and Villa have a much better goal difference and both will more than likely get at least to 35 points. In this sense the chances are that a win and a draw won’t be enough. Fulham need to win both remaining games, and even that won’t be enough if Villa or Sunderland show any form.
CARDIFF, P36, 30 Pts, -38 GD, Last 6: 5 pts: 3/5 Newcastle A; 11/5 Chelsea H
In the same boat as Fulham really.
So yes, the Hull draw probably doomed us, didn’t it?