We needed this one.
If you look at the last nine sides to go down and what happened to them next, the signs aren’t good:
The numbers in italics are what Fulham might be expected to achieve based on what’s happened before.
Clearly this is an exact science (a very long way from it) but when a team is as bad as Fulham were the next season tends not to be great. My very basic excel predictor suggested that we’d score 52 and concede 69 next year, which would land us in about 18th place, give or take. I do understand the limitations of this – teams change, after all, and a lot of teams do much better in the championship – but it does rather hint at the difficulties involved in transforming basket cases to super teams. And look at the list above. While there aren’t any clear clues about which teams improve and which stay bad, it can’t be a good thing that Fulham are going down with a worse defensive record than anyone else has had in the last three years, without the goals tally in attack that might justify this.
In short, we couldn’t just flop down and expect things to be better because we’d been up top a few years, because the playing staff really isn’t good enough for that. Our closest comparator was Wolves, who kept on going. Something needed to be done.
If there’s such a thing as a sure thing in the Championship, Ross McCormack is it.
His goalscoring record is remarkable, both in terms of its quantity and the extent to which he dominated Leeds’ attack. He partnered well with Matt Smith last year, as stereotypical a “big man” as you could hope to see, and I suspect this bodes well for Hugo Rodallega, who is better in the target man role than he looks like he should be. It should be an extremely potent combination.
What might it mean? Well let’s say Cauley Woodrow would have been good for 10 goals. A good number of Championship players score 10 goals. It’s a fair assumption for an unproven young player on a middle of the road team. Suppose that in the same games McCormack bags us 25. Suddenly we’ve gained 15 goals. (yes, yes, I know). If that means we score 67 and concede 69 then now we’re suddenly looking at a 10th place team, give or take.
THEN, if we can tighten up at the back and bring in a central midfielder then suddenly you’re looking at the play off places.
So it’s important that we did this and it could make a huge difference. I suspect we need a signing of similar magnitude in the middle of the pitch but this is a big deal.
NOTE: CHANGED MY MIND ABOUT THE LIKELY LEVEL OF FFC NEXT YEAR. SEE COMMENTS.