Latest dataset is up courtesy of Owain Thomas’ blog The Only Statistic That Matters, and nope it’s not that pretty.
|MATCHDAYS||SHOTS FOR||SHOTS AGAINST||CORSI/TSR||SOT TOTAL||SOT AGAINST TOTAL|
|MATCHDAYS||SOT SHARE||SHOOTING % FOR||SAVE %||PDO|
There are several warning signs: the immense increase in Shots on Target Against, and the decline of our Shooting %.
Above we see a major uptick in the SoTA and SoT between matchdays 35-40. How does this happen? Let’s investigate:
|Opponent||Fulham Shots||Fulham SoT||Opp Shots||Opp SoT|
(Holy shit that Huddersfield game!) In the past five matches Fulham have been averaging 17.2 total shots, 5.2 SoT, 18 shots against, and 8.2 SoTA. That’s worrisome.
Whereas matches 30-35 were all against top 10 opponents, this set was against mid-table oppositions (Bournemouth aside) and was to better show the club’s true standing. And no it’s not great.
But, dig a little deeper. Huddersfield was clearly a statistical outlier (and played with 10 men) and Bournemouth are the best team in the league (and also played with 10 men). The numbers otherwise are quite even if not slightly skewing in our favor. So why the terrible results?
What the Huddersfield and Leeds game show is Variance 101: nine out of ten times Fulham beat Leeds handily, and nine out of ten times Fulham lose to Huddersfield.
Not to mention on another day Fulham might have at least nicked a point from Brentford. The numbers from that, and the Leeds match too, are much more promising than the Bournemouth massacre or the Huddersfield miracle.
Yet that’s why they play the game and we watch. Luck sometimes can even out. No, we’re not a good team by any stretch. But the numbers are showing we’re also not as bad as we may currently seem.
So now, back to data-land, if we stack the difference between SoT and SoTA in each preceding week, we see SoT is keeping pace whereas SoTA is worrisome.
Regardless, this is having a major impact on our SoT Share, as seen nose-diving below:
Oy vey. Fulham have almost come full circle from where they were under Magath.
Now onto the Shooting % (apologies for the incorrect labels. 1=Week 5, 2=Week 10, etc)
Whereas before Fulham’s Sh% was plateauing within 1.5 points from Matchdays 10-35 (i.e. it wasn’t fluctuating), it recently dipped below 32%, the first time since Kit was named permanent manager.
Unfortunately if you take this all this data and compare it with the club’s rather stable PDO and TSR to date, you come to the conclusion that we’re about where we should be in the table.
Thankfully there are just six matches remaining, with three against teams below us. April 10-18, with home games versus Wigan and Rotherham, and a trip to bottom Blackpool, will be massive.
Not to mention they will be statistically fascinating.
UPDATE: Something I missed in initial post but warrants mentioning: Fulham are leading the league in Shots on Target Against. Yes, 2 more (as of yesterday) than Blackpool. Go about your business.