More brilliant stuff from the Secret Footballer about how Sam Allardyce used analytics to his advantage:
Allardyce’s analytical ideas were impressive. He looked at everything, every component of the game.
At one point, he stationed a player at attacking corners in an area of the pitch that appeared to be in the middle of nowhere.
His logic was based on seasons of statistical research that determined where the clearing header was most likely to land on average.
The clearing header is the most likely result from a corner so it pays to know where it’s most likely to land.
The reason for that is because the stats for goals from a corner go down with every recycled ball.
It goes something like this. The corner is aimed at the middle of the goal.
Statistically, this is the area, actually just slightly towards the near post, where most direct goals, usually headers, are scored.
But there are stats at work here, within stats.
Because if that header isn’t a shot, then the next area that it is likely to end up in is the back post or “Pomo” – the position of maximum opportunity.
Allardyce would station a man here, running in on the outside of the back post for what would be a tap in. Very often this was Kevin Davies.
The third part of the area that the ball would end up would be just in front of the goalkeeper and you can still see Allardyce’s stats at work here. This time, with West Ham United.
In front of the keeper is exactly where Kevin Nolan stands and I’ve lost count of how many goals he’s scored from this position.
All of these three parts of the penalty area are dependent on a Bolton player winning the first header. After that, the stats go down markedly.
After that, the stats in play are for a recycled ball … or the second phase of play.
And given that the clearing header is generally towards the dugout near the halfway line, there are two options when keeping the attack going.
Either hit the ball to the back post, where players like Davies will knock the ball down for someone to shoot, or pass it to the corner taker, who hits an inswinging cross, usually nodded home by a centre half or a striker.
People thought that Bolton were a big, cumbersome team. They weren’t; they just played the stats better than anybody else.
He’s likely to talk about Fulham tomorrow, which should be interesting to say the least. It’s a fascinating series so far.