Let’s analyze Slavisa after just 7 games!

(by timbo)

As I mentioned yesterday, Fulham’s TSR has increased whereas the Shooting % has decreased in Slavisa Jokanovic’s 7 games in charge. This is a very small sample size, and barely half of what Kit’s is, but it’s still illustrative of the changes he’s made.

Below are four graphs. The first set is Fulham’s TSR and then PDO under Kit, the interim period (weren’t like 3 people in charge then, including Alan Curbishley?), and Slavisa.

The second set is Fulham’s Shots on Target Share (i.e. our % of a match’s total shots on target; if we have 3 and our opponent has 7, we have 30% SoT Share) and Shooting % (how many shots on target result in goals). There’s also our Danger Zone Shots For % and Danger Zone Shots Against %.

TSR & PDO

Notice the TSR uptick under Slavisa? Despite our overall bad TSR metric (see yesterday’s post), we’re actually trending upwards, ever so slightly.

The defense, Kit’s achilles heel, is actually improving ever so slightly. We’re giving up 1 less shot in the Danger Zone per game than before (6.3 to 5.4). That might not sound like much, but our offense was carrying this team in a very unsustainable way.

And the second set of images:

Shooting % & DZ %.png

Holy crap our shooting has nosedived, especially in the Danger Zone. This may contradict what I wrote about our TSR improving, but that’s why it’s helpful to look at these things in many different ways.

Part of this is because:

  • We’ve played some very good opponents since Slavisa took over. Hull are currently in an automatic promotion spot. Derby and Sheffield Wednesday are currently in the playoffs. Wolves were a top-10 team in mid-January. Blackburn, despite having the then-tied-for-worst-offense, has a top 6 GA defense.
  • He’s kept the same formation between matches just once (Kit changed formations once in his 16 games in charge).
  • If you count his first game as zero, he’s averaged 2.6 changes to the starting lineup between each match (Kit averaged 1.5).
  • Ross McCormack missed a match where we had but 9 shots total, 2 on target (remember, this is only a 7 game sample size).
  • Just watching the team you see a new offense: whereas before the offense was an open, exciting/frantic give-and-go system that too often exposed the defense; now we’re possessing the ball and playing with a high line.
    • On average we’re still shooting the same amount of times, but far less on target and much less in the Danger Zone. This isn’t surprising when you introduce an entirely new offense half way through the season.

Slavisa was given half a season to try different things to see what will work for next year. He’s clearly attempting that, and some metrics are taking a slight hit.

It will be fascinating to see where these numbers, and the team’s results, go in the remaining 15 matches this season.

 

2 thoughts on “Let’s analyze Slavisa after just 7 games!

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